Question

Think of all the examples of forecasting experience on a regular basis; such as the weatherman on TV each night.
Now, considering the technology we have at our disposal today, why can't we get a "Perfect" forecast?

Response to this question must be 350-500 words.

Answer 1

Generally, people feel that they can forecast everything perfectly but it is not possible and applicable to some situations only and even there is no guarantee for those situations every time.

For example, a manager can forecast the demand for a product based on the previous experience or previous sales but there is no assurance for sales improvement, sales may be increased or decreased. We can forecast about anything based on the previous experience as well as using technology.

I agree we have great technology with us with comparing to previous time but future is uncertainty, as a human being, we can't expect what will happen in the next minute of our lives and in business also.

As mentioned in the question, every day we can see the news about weather conditions, but it is not right always. If weatherman say about heavy rain, we may not see single drop and when he says that weather condition is normal, we may see heavy rain.

This is the situation, we can observe in our life. Even we have most developed technology with us, we will fail in some situations. But so many people are not agreeing with this, they confidently say that they can forecast everything with using their technology.

For suppose, the result of the election forecasts by some people based on the past results, they will continue the same feeling up to announcement time, but they msy not get the same results. So we can't forecast anything based on technology and past experiences.

To say this confidently there are many examples

For suppose, let us consider earthquakes. Today, we have well developed technology and very valuable people like scientists but no one can predict about earthquakes. It will happen very suddenly. We can't estimate its strength and time period before, it will happen very suddenly.

Another example, hudud cyclone, it happened in the year 2014. It started on 8th October 2014 and ends with 14 October 2014. Our scientists forecast about it previous and alert people but they didn't forecast its length and strength before.