Sales of roof material, by quarter, for 2010 through 2016, by Carolina Home Construction Inc. are...

Sales of roof material, by quarter, for 2010 through 2016, by Carolina Home Construction Inc. are shown below (in $000). Quarter Year I II III IV 2010 69 241 211 220 2011 85 236 249 222 2012 100 284 253 256 2013 117 298 275 268 2014 113 305 309 299 2015 120 311 325 296 2016 130 327 210 183 Click here for the Excel Data File Determine the typical seasonal patterns for sales using the ratio-to-moving-average method. (Round your answers to 4 decimal places.) Deseasonalize the data and determine the trend equation. (Round your answers to 3 decimal places.) Project sales for 2017 using the trend equation and seasonally adjust these values to find the predicted sales for each quarter. (Round your answers to 4 decimal places.)

Solutions

Expert Solution

Centered Moving Average and Deseasonalization

				Centered
				Moving	Ratio to	Seasonal	Sales
t	Year	Quarter	Sales	Average	CMA	Indexes	Deseasonalized
1	1	1	69			0.469	147.194
2	1	2	241			1.251	192.684
3	1	3	211	187.2500	1.1268	1.169	180.549
4	1	4	220	188.6250	1.1663	1.112	197.873
5	2	1	85	192.7500	0.4410	0.469	181.325
6	2	2	236	197.7500	1.1934	1.251	188.687
7	2	3	249	199.8750	1.2458	1.169	213.065
8	2	4	222	207.7500	1.0686	1.112	199.672
9	3	1	100	214.2500	0.4667	0.469	213.324
10	3	2	284	219.0000	1.2968	1.251	227.064
11	3	3	253	225.3750	1.1226	1.169	216.488
12	3	4	256	229.2500	1.1167	1.112	230.252
13	4	1	117	233.7500	0.5005	0.469	249.589
14	4	2	298	238.0000	1.2521	1.251	238.257
15	4	3	275	239.0000	1.1506	1.169	235.313
16	4	4	268	239.3750	1.1196	1.112	241.045
17	5	1	113	244.5000	0.4622	0.469	241.056
18	5	2	305	252.6250	1.2073	1.251	243.853
19	5	3	309	257.3750	1.2006	1.169	264.407
20	5	4	299	259.0000	1.1544	1.112	268.928
21	6	1	120	261.7500	0.4585	0.469	255.989
22	6	2	311	263.3750	1.1808	1.251	248.651
23	6	3	325	264.2500	1.2299	1.169	278.097
24	6	4	296	267.5000	1.1065	1.112	266.229
25	7	1	130	255.1250	0.5096	0.469	277.321
26	7	2	327	226.6250	1.4429	1.251	261.443
27	7	3	210			1.169	179.694
28	7	4	183			1.112	164.594

Predicted Sales for 2017

Quarter I: Sales = 0.469 * [2.5281(29) + 188.44] = 122.7630

Quarter II: Sales = 1.251 * [2.5281(30) + 188.44] = 330.6180

Quarter III: Sales = 1.169 * [2.5281(31) + 188.44] = 311.9022

Quarter IV: Sales = 1.112 * [2.5281(32) + 188.44] = 299.5052

[Please give me a Thumbs Up if you are satisfied with my answer. If you are not, please comment on it, so I can edit the answer. Thanks.]

orchestra answered 1 year ago

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