Question

You are a capital-budgeting analyst for SpaceX. SpaceX is pondering the construction of a moon-tourism spaceship, requiring an outflow of $400 at t=0. If fully constructed, the spaceship will expire in 10 years, with cash flows at t=8 through t=10. You do not know whether the ship will be a success or a failure, until new information emerges at t=7. You forecast that, if the ship looks to be a success, the cash flows from t=8 through t=10 will be $600, $700, and $800, respectively. If the endeavor looks to be a failure, the same three cash flows will be $300, $350, and $400. The company has the option, at t=7, to abandon by selling the ship to Roskosmos for $840. Current forecasted probabilities are 55% for success and 45% for failure. Using a discount rate of 16%/year, calculate (a) the expected NPV of this project without the abandonment option and (b) the value that the abandonment option (i.e., the option to sell the ship to Roskosmos) contributes to the project.

Answer 1