In: Advanced Math
Identify the flaws in the reasoning of the researchers in the following two scenarios, and discuss these flaws as completely as you can given the information provided in the question.
(a) Five hundred students at a randomly selected big-city elementary school are given a 25-question survey that they are to return the next day after their parents have filled it out. One of the questions asked of parents is, “Does your work schedule make it difficult to spend after-school time with your kids?” Among the parents who replied, 85% said “no”. Based on these results, the researchers concluded that the great majority of parents have no difficulty spending time with their kids after school.
(b) A survey is conducted on a random sample of 1,000 women who recently gave birth, asking them whether they smoked during the pregnancy. A follow-up survey 3 years later asked if their children have had any respiratory problems. Of the original 1,000 women who gave birth, 567 were reached at the same address and responded to the follow-up survey. The researcher reported that these 567 women are representative of all mothers with children under 3 years old.
a) This is flawed. The parents who might have answered "yes" are precisely those who would have found it difficult to participate in the survey in the first place. On the other hand the available parents who were more than willing to participate in the survey would have obviously answered no. Thus, the survey design itself is flawed
b) The 567 women who were at the same original place of residence showed a stability in their lives. Typically stable familial households have people who are responsible and who care about the well-being of fellow family members. This means that the propensity to move away would typically be more pronounced in families with problems such as cigarette/alcohol addiction, especially with families which are as irresponsible as to have women smoke and drink when were pregnant.
Again, the survey results are highly suspect because of flawed design
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