Question

1)Do a quick google search, “Regression to the Mean”, and provide a real life example of this phenomenon, including a personal example if you wish.

Answer 1

1. Regression to the mean is all about how data evens out. It basically states that if a variable is extreme the first time you measure it, it will be closer to the average the next time you measure it. In technical terms, it describes how a random variable that is outside the norm eventually tends to return to the norm. For example, your odds of winning on a slot machine stay the same. You might hit a “winning streak” which is, technically speaking, a set of random variables outside the norm. But play the machine long enough, and the random variables will regress to the mean (i.e. “return to normal”) and you’ll end up losing!

The Sports Illustrated jinx is an excellent example of regression to the mean. The jinx states that whoever appears on the cover of SI is going to have a poor following year (or years). But the “jinx” is actually regression towards the mean. Most players have good games, and they have bad games. A winning streak is usually just that: a lucky streak. And it leads to being on the cover of SI. But it’s statistically likely to be followed by a fall back to average performance.