The manager of a utility company in the Texas panhandle wants to develop quarterly forecasts of...

The manager of a utility company in the Texas panhandle wants to develop quarterly forecasts of power loads for the next year. The power loads are? seasonal, and the data on the quarterly loads in megawatts? (MW) for the last four years are as? follows: ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 1.102.1 93.6 120.6 107.7

2.129.4 119.9 142.5 131.2

3. 142.9 136.5 169.9 149.1

4. 168.6 156.1 181.6 169.0

The manager estimates the total demand for the next year at 735735 MW. Use the multiplicative seasonal method to develop the forecast for each quarter. ?(Round all intermediate calculations to three decimal? places.) The first quarter forecast is nothing MW. ?(Enter your response rounded to one decimal? place.)

Expert Solution

In the multiplicative seasonal method, the average value of the yearly demand is calculated, and the forecasts are developed using the formula:-

Forecast=Seasonality Factor*Average Demand

For Years 1-4, Seasonality Factors are calculated by using the formula:-

Seasonality Factor=Quarterly Demand/Average Demand

The average seasonality factor of years 1-4 will be used for Year 5,i.e,

S.F. for Q1Y5 (Quarter 1 of Year 5)=(Sum of S.F. for Q1Y1,Q1Y2,Q1Y3 & Q1Y4)/4

All the values are tabulated below:-

Quarter	Y1	S1	Y2	S2	Y3	S3	Y4	S4	Y5	S5
1	102.1	0.752	93.6	0.740	120.6	0.785	107.7	0.773	140.120	0.763
2	129.4	0.953	119.9	0.948	142.5	0.927	131.2	0.942	173.207	0.943
3	142.9	1.053	136.5	1.079	169.9	1.106	149.1	1.071	197.899	1.077
4	168.6	1.242	156.1	1.234	181.6	1.182	169	1.214	223.775	1.218
Total	543		506.1		614.6		557		735
Avg.	135.75		126.525		153.65		139.25		183.75

where, S1,S2,S3,S4 and S5 are SF for Years 1-5.

The forecast for quarter 1 is 140.1 MW.

keosha answered 9 months ago

The Longmont company in Charlette, North Carolina, asked you to develop quarterly forecasts of combine sales...

The Longmont company in Charlette, North Carolina, asked you to develop quarterly forecasts of combine sales for next year. Combine sales are seasonal, and the data on the quarterly sales for the last four years are as follows: Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 1 55 85 178 256 2 37 23 101 193 3 89 130 145 209 4 110 156 167 167 Chad Johnson estimates the total demand for the next year (Year 5) at...

Robin Will is the IT procurement manager for Bendigo International. The company wants to develop a...

Robin Will is the IT procurement manager for Bendigo International. The company wants to develop a new information system and is looking at some of the options discussed— outsource, buy off-the-shelf or develop in-house. Robin has been provided with a request for a proposal that details the system’s requirements. As someone who has a lot of connections in the industry, he decides to ask some of his ‘mates’ to quote for outsourcing or supplying a turnkey system that will be...

Engineer wants to develop a model to describe the gas mileage of a sport utility vehicle....

Engineer wants to develop a model to describe the gas mileage of a sport utility vehicle. He collects the data presented in following table. 2008 Model Engine Size (liters) Cylinders Final Drive Ratio Miles per Gallon Mercedes Benz 5 8 4.38 13 Jeep Wrangler 3.8 6 3.21 16 Mitsubishi Endeavor 3.8 6 4.01 18 Toyota Land Cruiser 5.7 8 3.91 15 Kia Sorento 3.3 6 3.33 18 Jeep Commander Sport 4.7 8 3.73 15 Dodge Durango 4.7 8 3.55 15...

Problem Details: A major beverage company needs forecasts of sales for next year. Quarterly sales data...

Problem Details: A major beverage company needs forecasts of sales for next year. Quarterly sales data for the previous 13 years can be found in the “Beverage_Sales” worksheet of the Excel file titled Group Case #2 Data. Requirements (You will NOT follow the PLAN-DO-REPORT algorithm. Address/answer all requirements in the order given.): 1. (2 points) Create a Time Series plot of the sales data. Briefly describe what you see in the plot. 2. (5 points) Develop a model to forecast...

Suppose you are a salesperson and your company's CRM forecasts that your quarterly sales will be...

Suppose you are a salesperson and your company's CRM forecasts that your quarterly sales will be substantially under quota. You call your best customers to increase sales, but no one is willing to buy more. Your boss says that it has been a bad quarter for all the salespeople. It's so bad, in fact, that the vice president of sales has authorized a 20 percent discount on new orders. The only stipulation is that customers must take delivery prior to...

Develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time series.

Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 17 11 14 10 16 13 (a) (b) Develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time series. (Round your answers to two decimal places.) Week Time Series Value Forecast 1 17 2 11 3 14 4 10 5 16 6 13 Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MSE = What is the forecast for week 7? (c) Use α = 0.2 to...

You are a Finance Manager for a major utility company. Respond to the following in a...

You are a Finance Manager for a major utility company. Respond to the following in a minimum of 175 words: Think about some of the capital budgeting techniques you might use for some upcoming projects. Discuss at least 2 capital budgeting techniques and how your company can benefit from the use of these tools. Compare your approaches to other students’ responses. How were they similar or different? Why might you use the different approaches shared by your classmates?

a) What is Utility ? Develop a two dimensional model of Total Utility,, and explain the...

a) What is Utility ? Develop a two dimensional model of Total Utility,, and explain the purpose of this model. b) What is Marginal Utility? Derive it from Total Utility. c) Using utility analysis: if one is economically rational, how does he/she allocate his/her choices ? d) What are indifference curves ? Develop and demonstrate via a two dimensional model. e) Given indifference curves, how is a decision made as to choices ? Demonstrate.

1. Multiple Regression Analysis The manager of the BuieCreek Police department motor pool wants to develop...

1. Multiple Regression Analysis The manager of the BuieCreek Police department motor pool wants to develop a forecast model for annual maintenance on police cars, based on mileage in the past year and age of the cars. The following data have been collected for eight different cars: Miles Driven Car Age (yr) Maintenance cost 16,320 7 1,200 15,100 8 1,400 18,500 8 1,820 10,200 3 900 9,175 3 650 12,770 7 1,150 8,600 2 875 7,900 3 900 A. Use...

Rockstar Carpet Outlet wants to develop a method to forecast its carpet sales. The manager believes...

Rockstar Carpet Outlet wants to develop a method to forecast its carpet sales. The manager believes that the store’s sales are related to the number of new housing starts in the area and has gathered data of construction permits from the county records and from store sales. Monthly carpet sales (1000s yd) Monthly construction permits 11 17 8 30 5 12 12 14 6 18 5 10 8 38 4 20 14 16 9 31 9 15 16 21 Develop...

Question