The manager of a utility company in the Texas panhandle wants to develop quarterly forecasts of...

The manager of a utility company in the Texas panhandle wants to develop quarterly forecasts of power loads for the next year. The power loads are? seasonal, and the data on the quarterly loads in megawatts? (MW) for the last four years are as? follows: ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 1.102.1 93.6 120.6 107.7

2.129.4 119.9 142.5 131.2

3. 142.9 136.5 169.9 149.1

4. 168.6 156.1 181.6 169.0

The manager estimates the total demand for the next year at 735735 MW. Use the multiplicative seasonal method to develop the forecast for each quarter. ?(Round all intermediate calculations to three decimal? places.) The first quarter forecast is nothing MW. ?(Enter your response rounded to one decimal? place.)

Solutions

Expert Solution

In the multiplicative seasonal method, the average value of the yearly demand is calculated, and the forecasts are developed using the formula:-

Forecast=Seasonality Factor*Average Demand

For Years 1-4, Seasonality Factors are calculated by using the formula:-

Seasonality Factor=Quarterly Demand/Average Demand

The average seasonality factor of years 1-4 will be used for Year 5,i.e,

S.F. for Q1Y5 (Quarter 1 of Year 5)=(Sum of S.F. for Q1Y1,Q1Y2,Q1Y3 & Q1Y4)/4

All the values are tabulated below:-

Quarter	Y1	S1	Y2	S2	Y3	S3	Y4	S4	Y5	S5
1	102.1	0.752	93.6	0.740	120.6	0.785	107.7	0.773	140.120	0.763
2	129.4	0.953	119.9	0.948	142.5	0.927	131.2	0.942	173.207	0.943
3	142.9	1.053	136.5	1.079	169.9	1.106	149.1	1.071	197.899	1.077
4	168.6	1.242	156.1	1.234	181.6	1.182	169	1.214	223.775	1.218
Total	543		506.1		614.6		557		735
Avg.	135.75		126.525		153.65		139.25		183.75

where, S1,S2,S3,S4 and S5 are SF for Years 1-5.

The forecast for quarter 1 is 140.1 MW.

keosha answered 3 months ago

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