The next page provides the monthly sales data for Joe's Stone Crab. We have been hired...

The next page provides the monthly sales data for Joe's Stone Crab. We have been hired to develop a forecasting model that will predict future sales for 2018 using the time-series seasonal adjustment method. Assume that data is only available through the end of 2017.

Make sure to include the 2018 forecast by month, as well as the trend, the seasonal factors, and the error measurements!

Sales data are in thousands of dollars per month and the forecast should be in the same units. Do not add zeros to the data.

	2014	2015	2016	2017
Sales	in thousands of dollars	in thousands of dollars	in thousands of dollars)	in thousands of dollars
January	242	263	282	306
February	235	238	255	280
March	232	247	245	270
April	178	191	205	210
May	184	193	210	214
June	140	149	160	175
July	145	157	165	182
August	152	160	175	193
September	110	122	126	130
October	130	130	148	155
November	152	167	173	182
December	206	230	235	255

Expert Solution

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ANSWER:

As per question given

Joe Stone Carb
Annual Business Plan FY 2016							Month-wise seasonality FY2013-14			11.49%	11.16%	11.02%	8.45%	8.74%	6.65%	6.89%	7.22%	5.22%	6.17%	7.22%	9.78%	100.00%
Historcal Data - FY 2016							Month-wise seasonality FY2014-15			11.70%	10.59%	10.99%	8.50%	8.59%	6.63%	6.99%	7.12%	5.43%	5.79%	7.43%	10.24%	100.00%
Revenues - Retail ( INR, Gross inclusive of VAT, Net of Discounts)							Month-wise seasonality FY2015-16			11.85%	10.72%	10.30%	8.62%	8.83%	6.73%	6.94%	7.36%	5.30%	6.22%	7.27%	9.88%	100.00%
							Month-wise seasonality FY2016-17			11.99%	10.97%	10.58%	8.23%	8.39%	6.86%	7.13%	7.56%	5.09%	6.07%	7.13%	9.99%	100.00%
							Month-wise seasonality FY2017-18			11.30%	10.67%	10.49%	8.20%	8.02%	6.88%	7.17%	8.17%	5.22%	6.62%	7.14%	10.12%	100.00%
Sl.	Store Code	Brand	Mall	City	Carpet Area	Date of Opening	Avg Comp FY2014-15	Avg Comp FY2015-16	Avg Comp FY2016-17	Jan-18	Feb-18	Mar-18	Apr-18	May-18	Jun-18	Jul-18	Aug-18	Sep-18	Oct-18	Nov-18	Dec-18	Full Year Total
1	001	Joe's Stone Carb	High Street	New York		1-Apr-11	-100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	307	290	285	223	218	187	195	222	142	180	194	275	2,718
	GRAND TOTAL				-					307	290	285	223	218	187	195	222	142	180	194	275	2,718

Joe Stone Carb
Annual Business Plan FY 2016					Month-wise seasonality FY2013-14	11.49%	11.16%	11.02%	8.45%	8.74%	6.65%	6.89%	7.22%	5.22%	6.17%	7.22%	9.78%	100.00%
Historcal Data - FY 2016					Month-wise seasonality FY2014-15	11.70%	10.59%	10.99%	8.50%	8.59%	6.63%	6.99%	7.12%	5.43%	5.79%	7.43%	10.24%	100.00%
Revenues - Retail ( INR, Gross inclusive of VAT, Net of Discounts)											Month-wise seasonality FY2015-16	11.85%	10.72%	10.30%	8.62%	8.83%	6.73%	6.94%	7.36%	5.30%	6.22%	7.27%	9.88%	100.00%
					Month-wise seasonality FY2016-17	11.99%	10.97%	10.58%	8.23%	8.39%	6.86%	7.13%	7.56%	5.09%	6.07%	7.13%	9.99%	100.00%
Sl.	Store Code	Brand	Mall	City	Avg Comp FY2016-17	Jan-17	Feb-17	Mar-17	Apr-17	May-17	Jun-17	Jul-17	Aug-17	Sep-17	Oct-17	Nov-17	Dec-17	Full Year Total
1	001	Joe's Stone Carb	High Street	New York	0.00%	306	280	270	210	214	175	182	193	130	155	182	255	2,552
	GRAND TOTAL					306	280	270	210	214	175	182	193	130	155	182	255	2,552

Joe Stone Carb
Annual Business Plan FY 2016
Historcal Data - FY 2016									Month-wise seasonality FY2013-14			11.49%	11.16%	11.02%	8.45%	8.74%	6.65%	6.89%	7.22%	5.22%	6.17%	7.22%	9.78%	100.00%
Revenues - Retail ( INR, Gross inclusive of VAT, Net of Discounts)									Month-wise seasonality FY2014-15			11.70%	10.59%	10.99%	8.50%	8.59%	6.63%	6.99%	7.12%	5.43%	5.79%	7.43%	10.24%	100.00%
									Month-wise seasonality FY2015-16			11.85%	10.72%	10.30%	8.62%	8.83%	6.73%	6.94%	7.36%	5.30%	6.22%	7.27%	9.88%	100.00%
Sl.	Store Code	Brand	Mall	City	Carpet Area	Date of Opening	Avg SPSF FY2013-14	Avg SPSF FY2014-15	Avg SPSF FY2015-16	Avg Comp FY2014-15	Avg Comp FY2015-16	Jan-16	Feb-16	Mar-16	Apr-16	May-16	Jun-16	Jul-16	Aug-16	Sep-16	Oct-16	Nov-16	Dec-16	Full Year Total
1	001	Joe's Stone Carb	High Street	New York	-	1-Apr-11	0	-	-	-100.00%	0.00%	282	255	245	205	210	160	165	175	126	148	173	235	2,379
	GRAND TOTAL				-							282	255	245	205	210	160	165	175	126	148	173	235	2,379

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