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Question 3 (a) What do you understand by a time series forecasting approach? Describe each of...

Question 3

(a) What do you understand by a time series forecasting approach? Describe each of the four factors in this approach and indicate how they are determined.

(b) The historical demand for a product is as follows:

Month Demand

January 12

February 11

March 15

April 12

May 16

June 15

Stating any assumptions that you make answer the following questions.

(i) Using a weighted moving average with weights of 0.60 for June; 0.30 for May and 0.10 for April, find the July forecast.

(ii) Using a simple three-month moving average, find the July forecast.

(iii) Using simple exponential smoothing with a=0.2 and a June forecast of 13 find the July forecast. Comment about your solution.

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