Question

THIS IS A DECISION ANALYSIS MAKING CLASS (HEALTHCARE ADMINISTRATION)

Discuss why probability is so important within the health care decision analysis. Provide specific areas of understanding, for Classical, Empirical, Subjective and Axiomatic Probability. Why are these Probability used in the health care decision analysis?

Answer 1

The probability is impoertant in every stream but in healthcare it is more important because of the following reasons,

1) Healthcare is the stream in which we are dealing with Human Beings or other animals

2) Healthcare involves many such fileds or broader areas from STATISTICS such as Clinical Triles, Survival Analysis and these fileds are directly connected to living lives.

3) Also, Quality control and Quality assurance in drug development we have pahses where we testing our drugs developed on animals and then on humans

4) Based on the clinical trials final test for the drug is getting completed and it is once of the crucial stage and decision also.

Due to these reasons Probability is so important with healthcare decision analysis. Also, when STATISTICS comes into the picture then probability also comes in picture.

Specific Areas,

Classical Probabilities - Birth Defects

These are simple probability calculations approach. In this case all the events are equally likely,

Example -

Suppose we randomly select three children and we are interested in the probability that none of the children have any birth defects. Then ther is equal chance of child being defected.

Empirical Probability - Food Choice of the Patiant Under Study and its impact.

For example, suppose we were to survey a group of 50 patiants. We ask them to choose their favorite type of food, such as the Italian, Mexican, French, American, or Chinese choices.

If 14 of the patiants chose Chinese as their favorite food, then based on these results, the empirical probability that a chef in this group would prefer Chinese food over all other types of cuisine would be 0.28. This is an example of empirical. From this we can anlyze the results of the experiment and food causing it.

Subjective Probability - Impact of Drug - Clinical trile

Subjective probability is a type of probability derived from an individual's personal judgment about whether a specific outcome is likely to occur. It contains no formal calculations and only reflects the subject's opinions and past experience.

For example, Suppose the study suggested that perticular drug will be effective in some percentage on human, then this is personal judgment or persons view. This is type of empirical probabiity.

Axiomatic Probability  - Drug Development, Bi-Statistics

Probability Axioms. Given an event in a sample space which is either finite with elements or countably infinite with elements, then we can write. and a quantity , called the probability of event , is defined such that. 1.