In: Operations Management
i.Demand Range Model
The average daily demand for a particular item is 438 with a standard deviation of 24. The current policy is to order enough items for 25 days. What is the likely range for that 25-day demand?
Determine the range with a calculation (mean +/- 3 stdev)
Determine the range with a simulation.
a)
Average Daily Demand = 438
STD, 
 = 24
Order quantity = Average lead time demand + 3
= (25*438) +/- (2*24)
Order quantity range (10902,10998)
b.)
Simulation using Excel formula Randbetween(10902,10998). The range is (10904,10998)
| 1 | 10934 | 
| 2 | 10924 | 
| 3 | 10938 | 
| 4 | 10974 | 
| 5 | 10952 | 
| 6 | 10929 | 
| 7 | 10904 | 
| 8 | 10934 | 
| 9 | 10993 | 
| 10 | 10997 | 
| 11 | 10973 | 
| 12 | 10944 | 
| 13 | 10982 | 
| 14 | 10962 | 
| 15 | 10931 | 
| 16 | 10907 | 
| 17 | 10919 | 
| 18 | 10986 | 
| 19 | 10993 | 
| 20 | 10914 | 
| 21 | 10966 | 
| 22 | 10960 | 
| 23 | 10932 | 
| 24 | 10936 | 
| 25 | 10937 | 
| 26 | 10937 | 
| 27 | 10994 | 
| 28 | 10990 | 
| 29 | 10984 | 
| 30 | 10941 | 
| 31 | 10996 | 
| 32 | 10981 | 
| 33 | 10918 | 
| 34 | 10911 | 
| 35 | 10985 | 
| 36 | 10981 | 
| 37 | 10950 | 
| 38 | 10977 | 
| 39 | 10972 | 
| 40 | 10920 | 
| 41 | 10949 | 
| 42 | 10964 | 
| 43 | 10908 | 
| 44 | 10997 | 
| 45 | 10978 | 
| 46 | 10932 | 
| 47 | 10919 | 
| 48 | 10937 | 
| 49 | 10924 | 
| 50 | 10946 | 
| 51 | 10939 | 
| 52 | 10906 | 
| 53 | 10987 | 
| 54 | 10952 | 
| 55 | 10924 | 
| 56 | 10998 | 
| 57 | 10919 | 
| 58 | 10998 | 
| 59 | 10994 | 
| 60 | 10938 | 
| 61 | 10904 | 
| 62 | 10980 | 
| 63 | 10921 | 
| 64 | 10910 | 
| 65 | 10951 | 
| 66 | 10920 | 
| 67 | 10950 | 
| 68 | 10990 | 
| 69 | 10943 | 
| 70 | 10910 | 
| 71 | 10991 | 
| 72 | 10924 | 
| 73 | 10963 | 
| 74 | 10969 | 
| 75 | 10924 | 
| 76 | 10921 | 
| 77 | 10911 | 
| 78 | 10990 | 
| 79 | 10962 | 
| 80 | 10929 | 
| 81 | 10966 | 
| 82 | 10928 | 
| 83 | 10907 | 
| 84 | 10948 | 
| 85 | 10989 | 
| 86 | 10983 | 
| 87 | 10986 | 
| 88 | 10991 | 
| 89 | 10952 | 
| 90 | 10978 | 
| 91 | 10955 | 
| 92 | 10971 | 
| 93 | 10938 | 
| 94 | 10990 | 
| 95 | 10927 | 
| 96 | 10928 | 
| 97 | 10960 | 
| 98 | 10942 | 
| 99 | 10958 | 
| 100 | 10934 |