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In: Statistics and Probability

One percent of the people in Westeros belong to the secret Brotherhood society. The Chief Interrogator...

One percent of the people in Westeros belong to the secret Brotherhood society. The
Chief Interrogator of Westeros ("the tickler") has a 95% chance of ruling that an
interrogated person belongs to the Brotherhood, when indeed this person is one of
its members. For people who are not members, \the tickler" deems them trustworthy
(i.e., not a member of the Brotherhood) with probability 0.4. Suppose "the tickler"
interrogates a random person from Westeros and finds them guilty of belonging to
the Brotherhood. What is the probability that this person indeed belongs to the
Brotherhood?

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orchestra answered 2 years ago
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