In: Finance
Robert is considering an investment opportunity based on the information provided in the table below. Explain the steps she has to undertake in order to earn a risk-free profit by engaging in a forward contract.
| USD 6-month risk free rate | 2.45% |
| EUR 6-month risk free rate | 3.60% |
| EUR/USD Spot exchange rate | 1.1278 |
| EUR/USD 6-month forward rate | 1.1480 |
| 1) | The 6 month forward premium for the USD = 1.1480/1.1278-1 = | 1.79% |
| 2) | Interest rate differential = 3.60%-2.45% = | 1.15% |
| 3) | As the 6 month forward premium is not equal to | |
| the 6 month interest rate differential, there is | ||
| scope for covered interest rate arbitrage. | ||
| 4) | As the interest rate differential is less than the | |
| forward premium, borrowing should be made in | ||
| the currency having higher interest rate and the | ||
| investment should be made in the currency having | ||
| lower interest rate. | ||
| Steps to be taken on Day 1 are: | ||
| *Borrow in euro at 3.60% for 6 months | ||
| *Convert the borrowed in euros into $ at the spot | ||
| rate of 1.1278. | ||
| *Invest the dollars so got at 2.45% for 6 months. | ||
| *Enter into a 6 month forward contract to sell the | ||
| dollars invested in the previous step (including | ||
| interest at 2.45%) | ||
| Steps to be taken after 6 months are: | ||
| *Realize the dollar deposit along with interest | ||
| *Convert it into euros at the forward contract rate | ||
| *Pay the euro loan along with interest using the | ||
| euros got in the previous step. | ||
| *The euros remaining after repaying the loan with | ||
| interest is the profit from the covered interest rate | ||
| arbitrage. |