Question

In: Statistics and Probability

The human resources department needs to forecast the number of sexual harassement investigations for the entire company.

 

The human resources department needs to forecast the number of sexual harassement investigations for the entire company. The data for several months is supplied below. Be careful since the data is listed beginning with the most recent. The forecasting method to be used here is the 4 month weighted moving average adjusting for seasonality where the weights, starting with the most recent time period, are 0.4, 0.3, 0.2, 0.1. Again, you must find the seasonality factors for the data. Please round your forecast to the nearest whole number.

Apr 2020: 11 Mar 2020: 10 Feb 2020: 18 Jan 2020: 13 Dec 2019: 11 Nov 2019: 17
Oct 2019: 14 Sep 2019: 15 Aug 2019: 17 Jul 2019: 16 Jun 2019: 15 May 2019: 16
Apr 2019: 15 Mar 2019: 16 Feb 2019: 14 Jan 2019: 11 Dec 2018: 18 Nov 2018: 14
Oct 2018: 12 Sep 2018: 15 Aug 2018: 13 Jul 2018: 17 Jun 2018: 11 May 2018: 17
Apr 2018: 18 Mar 2018: 13

Solutions

Expert Solution

Forecast = 14

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
Period Demand Weights Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 13 0.4 4 periods ago
Period 2 18 0.3 3 periods ago
Period 3 17 0.2 2 periods ago
Period 4 11 0.1 1 periods ago
Period 5 17 15.1 1.9 1.9 3.61 11.18%
Period 6 13 16.2 -3.2 3.2 10.24 24.62%
Period 7 15 14.8 0.2 0.2 0.04 01.33%
Period 8 12 13.6 -1.6 1.6 2.56 13.33%
Period 9 14 14.9 -0.9 0.9 0.81 06.43%
Period 10 11 13.5 -2.5 2.5 6.25 22.73%
Period 11 14 13.5 0.5 0.5 0.25 03.57%
Period 12 16 12.6 3.4 3.4 11.56 21.25%
Period 13 15 13.3 1.7 1.7 2.89 11.33%
Period 14 16 13.3 2.7 2.7 7.29 16.88%
Period 15 15 15 0 0 0 00.00%
Period 16 16 15.6 0.4 0.4 0.16 02.50%
Period 17 17 15.4 1.6 1.6 2.56 09.41%
Period 18 15 15.8 -0.8 0.8 0.64 05.33%
Period 19 14 15.7 -1.7 1.7 2.89 12.14%
Period 20 17 15.9 1.1 1.1 1.21 06.47%
Period 21 11 15.8 -4.8 4.8 23.04 43.64%
Period 22 13 14.7 -1.7 1.7 2.89 13.08%
Period 23 18 14.2 3.8 3.8 14.44 21.11%
Period 24 10 14.5 -4.5 4.5 20.25 45.00%
Period 25 11 12.9 -1.9 1.9 3.61 17.27%
Total -6.3 40.9 117.19 308.60%
Average -0.3 1.947619 5.580476 14.70%
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 2.483525
Next period 14

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