Question

You are preparing some sweet potato pie for your annual Thanksgiving feast. The store sells sweet potatoes in packages of 6. From prior experience you have found that the package will contain 0 spoiled sweet potatoes about 65% of the time, 1 spoiled sweet potato 25% of the time and 2 spoiled sweet potatoes the rest of the time. Conduct a simulation to estimate the number of packages of sweet potatoes you need to purchase to have three dozen (36) unspoiled sweet potatoes.

Part 1 of 3: (6 pts)

Describe in detail and in paragraph form how you will use the random numbers provided from a random number table (in part 2) to conduct 2 trials of this simulation. Be sure to include all of the first four steps of a simulation. Steps 5 and 6 are part 2 and step 7 are part 3 of this question.

1. Identify the component to be repeated.

2. Explain how you will model the outcome.

3. Explain in detail how you will simulate the trial.

4. State clearly what the response variable is.

Part 2 of 3: (3 pts)

Use the random number table to complete 2 trials. Analyze your response variable.

Trial#1:   41  23  19  98  75  08  63  29  10

Trial #2: 88 26 95  69  57  71  02 62 34

Part 3 of 3: (1 pt)

Give your conclusion based on your simulation results.

Answer 1

ANSWER:

Given that,

Given the following information

As the question requires us to compute number of Packets that needs to Purchased so as to get 36 Unspoiled Potatoes

A> So the component that repeated over a period of time is Number of packets as only when a packet is purchased then only we will able to determine the number of spoiled Tomatoes

B> The outcome has to modelled in the following manner

I> Generating random number between 0-9

II> Of this random number

(0,1,2,3,4,5)=0 rotten

(6,7,8)= 1 Rotten

(9)= 2 Rotten

III> Then compute the number of good Potatoes and keep adding till the total sum become >=36 which the required number

Count the number of Bags

C> So to simulate the trail we generate random number between 0-9

Based on the random number generated we determine the number of Rotten Potatoes as per the metric

(0,1,2,3,4,5)= 0 Rotten (65%)

(6,7,8) = 1 Rotten ( 25%)

(9)= 2 Rotten (10%)

Then Based on the random number generated compute the total number of Rotten Potatoes

Good Potatoes = 6 - rotten

Sum of the Number of bags to get number of good potatoes >=36

The response Variable used in Number of good Potatoes

Part 2:

In part 2 we instead of generating Random number between 0-9 as mentioned above can generate Random number between 1-100

For random number between

( 1-65)= 0 rotten

(66-90)= 1 Rotten

(91-100)= 2 Rotten

In First Trail , please refer to the screen shot below:

So number of Bags that need to be purchased is 7

Like wise for trail 2

So number of bags =7

Conclusion:

The Average number of packs of sweet potatoes that needs to be brought to get 36 good Potatoes based on simulation is 7 Packs.