In: Statistics and Probability
The number of users of a certain website (in millions) from 2004 through 2011 follows.
Year | Period | Users (Millions) |
---|---|---|
2004 | 1 | 1 |
2005 | 2 | 6 |
2006 | 3 | 12 |
2007 | 4 | 57 |
2008 | 5 | 144 |
2009 | 6 | 361 |
2010 | 7 | 608 |
2011 | 8 | 846 |
Using Minitab or Excel, develop a quadratic trend equation that can be used to forecast users (in millions). (Round your numerical values to one decimal place.)
Tt =
Consider the following time series.
Quarter | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
---|---|---|---|
1 | 72 | 69 | 63 |
2 | 49 | 41 | 51 |
3 | 58 | 60 | 53 |
4 | 77 | 80 | 71 |
b) Use the following dummy variables to develop an estimated regression equation to account for seasonal effects in the data:
x1 = 1 if quarter 1, 0 otherwise; x2 = 1 if quarter 2, 0 otherwise; x3 = 1 if quarter 3, 0 otherwise.
=
(c)Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year.
quarter 1 forecast
quarter 2 forecast
quarter 3 forecast
quarter 4 forecast