In: Statistics and Probability
The number of users of a certain website (in millions) from 2004 through 2011 follows.
| Year | Period | Users (Millions) | 
|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 1 | 1 | 
| 2005 | 2 | 6 | 
| 2006 | 3 | 12 | 
| 2007 | 4 | 57 | 
| 2008 | 5 | 144 | 
| 2009 | 6 | 361 | 
| 2010 | 7 | 608 | 
| 2011 | 8 | 846 | 
Using Minitab or Excel, develop a quadratic trend equation that can be used to forecast users (in millions). (Round your numerical values to one decimal place.)
Tt =
Consider the following time series.
| Quarter | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 72 | 69 | 63 | 
| 2 | 49 | 41 | 51 | 
| 3 | 58 | 60 | 53 | 
| 4 | 77 | 80 | 71 | 
b) Use the following dummy variables to develop an estimated regression equation to account for seasonal effects in the data:
x1 = 1 if quarter 1, 0 otherwise; x2 = 1 if quarter 2, 0 otherwise; x3 = 1 if quarter 3, 0 otherwise.
=
(c)Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year.
quarter 1 forecast
quarter 2 forecast
quarter 3 forecast
quarter 4 forecast