Question

The following table presents the orders of Samson Company for the last 36 months (3 years).

Month	Order Year 1	Order Year 2	Order Year 3
January	450	600	612
February	418	575	668
March	490	580	680
April	451	534	653
May	466	555	674
June	511	604	702
July	522	624	724
August	500	612	716
September	502	633	712
October	523	634	724
November	533	643	735
December	534	676	755

1. Use the data in the above table and regression analysis to forecast the orders for the next 12 months (4th year). Include your excel work sheet and your work in your write up. Show the regression equation, values of intercept, slope, correlation coefficient and coefficient determination and the forecast of orders for the next 12 months.
2. Explain how you could make your forecast’s results more reliable by incorporating a qualitative research to your quantitative results.

Answer 1

ANSWER::

FORMULAS:

Slope

b1= nE(xy)-ExEy/nE(x2)-(Ex2)

Intercept

b0=Ey-b1Ex/n

Regression

n(Exy)-(Ex)(Ey)/sqrt(nEx2-(Ex)2)(nEy2-(Ey)2)

By including qualitative factors such as customer's preferences, external variables, regulatory changes, one can make the forecast more robust and reduce the error in the forecast. Also, this would lead to better planning and optimizing the inventory in the process.

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