Question

The following table contains the demand from the last 10 months:

MONTH	ACTUAL DEMAND
1	36
2	38
3	40
4	41
5	43
6	42
7	43
8	45
9	46
10	48

a. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for these data using an α of 0.30 and an initial forecast (F₁) of 36. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)

b. Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend forecast for these data using an α of 0.30, a δ of 0.40, an initial trend forecast (T₁) of 1.00, and an initial exponentially smoothed forecast (F₁) of 35. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)

c-1. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the last nine months of forecasts. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)

c-2. Which is best?

• Exponential smoothing with trend forecast

• Single exponential smoothing forecast

Answer 1

c1.MAD of Single Exponential Smoothing Forecast is 3.27

c1.MAD of Exponential Smoothing Forecast with Trend is 1.01

c2.Exponential smoothing with trend forecast is best since the MAD is less for this method when comparet to simple exponential smoothing

Mean Absolute Deviation=