Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.

Consider the following time series data.

Week	1	2	3	4	5	6
Value	18	12	16	11	17	14

(a)	Mean absolute error
	If required, round your answer to one decimal place.


(b)	Mean squared error
	If required, round your answer to one decimal place.


(c)	Mean absolute percentage error
	If required, round your intermediate calculations and final answer to two decimal places.


(d)	What is the forecast for week 7? = 14

Expert Solution

week	value	forecast	absolute error	squared error	percentage error
1	18
2	12	18	6	36	0.5
3	16	12	4	16	0.25
4	11	16	5	25	0.454545455
5	17	11	6	36	0.352941176
6	14	17	3	9	0.214285714
7		14
		mean	4.8	24.4	0.354354469

formulas used

week	value	forecast	absolute error	squared error	percentage error
1	18
=1+A2	12	=B2	=ABS(C3-B3)	=D3^2	=D3/B3
=1+A3	16	=B3	=ABS(C4-B4)	=D4^2	=D4/B4
=1+A4	11	=B4	=ABS(C5-B5)	=D5^2	=D5/B5
=1+A5	17	=B5	=ABS(C6-B6)	=D6^2	=D6/B6
=1+A6	14	=B6	=ABS(C7-B7)	=D7^2	=D7/B7
7		=B7
		mean	=AVERAGE(D3:D7)	=AVERAGE(E3:E7)	=AVERAGE(F3:F7)

a)

mean absolute error = 4.8

b)

mean squared error = 24.4

c)

MAPE = 0.35

d) forecast for week 7 = 14

orchestra answered 3 years ago

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Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.

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