Use the Naïve Method of forecasting, prepare tables and calculate forecast accuracy measures. What is the forecast for month 11? Prepare the Time Series Plots.

Consider the following time series data.

Month	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Value	12	19	24	13	20	23	15	21	23	18

Use the Naïve Method of forecasting, prepare tables and calculate forecast accuracy measures. What is the forecast for month 11? Prepare the Time Series Plots.
Use the “Historical Average Forecasting Method” that calculates “Forecast for a month” as “the average of all the observed data right from the beginning up until the previous month.” Prepare tables and calculate forecast accuracy measures. What is the forecast for month 11? Prepare the Time Series Plots.
Which method appears to provide the better forecast? Use different Measures of Forecast Accuracy in making this determination.

Expert Solution

orchestra answered 2 years ago

Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy:

Consider the following time series data. Week123456Value201315111714Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy: a. Mean absolute error (MAE) b. Mean squared error (MSE) c. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) Round your answers to two decimal places. MAE = MSE = MAPE = Using the average of all the historical data as a forecast for the next period, compute the same three values. Round your answers to two decimal places. MAE = MSE = MAPE = Which method appears to...

using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.

Consider the following time series data:Week 1 2 3 4 5 6Value 18 13 16 11 17 14using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.a. mean absolute errorb.mean squared errorc. mean absolute percentage errord.What is the forecast for Week 7?2. refer to the time series data in exercise 1. using the average of all the historical data as a forecast for the next period, compute the...

Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy:

Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6Value 19 12 16 10 17 15 Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy: Mean absolute error (MAE)Mean squared error (MSE)Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) Round your answers to two decimal places. MAE = MSE = MAPE = Using the average of all the historical data as a forecast for the next period, compute...

Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.

Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 19 13 15 10 17 13 Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy. (a) Mean absolute error If required, round your answer to one decimal place. (b) Mean squared error If required, round your answer to one decimal place. (c) Mean absolute percentage error If required, round your intermediate calculations and final...

Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.

Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 12 16 11 17 14 Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy. (a) Mean absolute error If required, round your answer to one decimal place. (b) Mean squared error If required, round your answer to one decimal place. (c) Mean absolute percentage error If required, round your intermediate calculations and final...

What are the potential factors that may affect the forecast accuracy of the time series analysis?...

What are the potential factors that may affect the forecast accuracy of the time series analysis? Give examples.

Using the naive method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.

Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 13 16 11 17 14 Using the naive method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy. a. Mean absolute error (to 1 decimal). b.Mean squared error (to 1 decimal). c. Mean absolute percentage error (to 2 decimals). d. What is the forecast for week 7 (to 2 decimals)?

Using the naive method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.

Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 20 15 18 14 18 15 Using the naive method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy. a. Mean absolute error (to 1 decimal). _______ b.Mean squared error (to 1 decimal). _____ c. Mean absolute percentage error (to 2 decimals). _____% d. What is the forecast for week 7 (to 2 decimals)? ______

Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.

Consider the following time series data: Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Value 18 13 16 11 17 14 Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy. A. mean absolute error B. mean squared error C. mean absolute percentage error d. What is the forecast for Week 7?

4. Do the following problems, using data set #3: (a) Use the naïve forecasting method, the...

4. Do the following problems, using data set #3: (a) Use the naïve forecasting method, the average of historical data method, and a 3-period moving average to estimate values of X. (b) Calculate the Mean Absolute Error, the Mean Squared Error, and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error for each forecasting method. (c) Based on your answers to (b), which the best forecasting method? 5. Do the following, using data set #3: (a) Calculate a linear trend regression for X. (b)...

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Use the Naïve Method of forecasting, prepare tables and calculate forecast accuracy measures. What is the forecast for month 11? Prepare the Time Series Plots.

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