Question

Consider the following time series data.

Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

1 4 6 7

2 2 3 6

3 3 5 6

4 5 7 8

1.plot with line dot chart.

2.What type of pattern exists in the data?

a.Upward Trend Patter,

b. Downward Trend Pattern

c. Horizontal Pattern With Seasonality.

3.Use a multiple regression model with dummy variables as follows to develop an equation to account for seasonal effects in the data. Qtr1 = 1 if Quarter 1, 0 otherwise; Qtr2 = 1 if Quarter 2, 0 otherwise; Qtr3 = 1 if Quarter 3, 0 otherwise. If required, round your answers to three decimal places. For subtractive or negative numbers use a minus sign even if there is a + sign before the blank. (Example: -300)

a. Value = ( )  + ( ) Qtr1 + ( )  Qtr2 + ( ) Qtr3 +  t

4.Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year. If required, round your answers to two decimal places.

1. Quarter 1 forecast =
2. Quarter 2 forecast =
3. Quarter 3 forecast =
4. Quarter 4 forecast =

Answer 1

ANSWER::

1.

2. Pattern exists in the data

Horizontal Pattern With Seasonality.

As graph is moving upward

3.using excel regression ,

Yt=6.66-1Qtr1-3Qtr2-2Qtr3

input data

4.

Quarter 1 forecast= 6.667-1(1)-3(0)-2(0) =5.667

Quarter 2 forecast= 6.667-1(0)-3(1)-2(0) =3.667

Quarter 3 forecast= 6.667-1(0)-3(0)-2(1) =4.667

Quarter 1 forecast= 6.667-1(0)-3(0)-2(0) =6.667

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