Question

Imagine a poll is conducted with a large, representative sample of US adults. Respondents are asked whether they think that the influence of religion in the US is changing. They respond on a scale from 0 to 10 where 0 means religion is becoming much less influential, 5 means the influence of religion is not changing, and 10 means religion is becoming much more influential. The average rating is 3.8 with a 2 point margin of error (95% confidence). The polling organization reports that Americans believe that religion is losing its influence in the US.

part 1: What is the 95% confidence interval for the mean rating (give the upper and lower bounds)?

part 2: What does this confidence interval tell you about Americans' beliefs about the influence of religion? Do you agree with the polling organization's conclusion?

partt 3: Do you think the results of this poll would be different if the question were asked differently? For example what if the question asked about the role of religion in controlling people's behaviour rather than asking about "influence"? Would it matter if this question were asked immediately following a question about religious service attendance? Or school prayer?

part 4: What are some things that can be done when creating a poll to minimize or control for the effects of word choice or question order?

Answer 1

Part 1:

Point Estimate = 3.8

Margin of Error = 2

So,

Upper Bound of Confidence Interval = 3.8 + 2 = 5.8

Lower Bound of Confidence Interval = 3.8 - 2 = 1.8

Part 2:

We do not agree with the polling organization's conclusion that Americans believe that religion is losing its influence in the US. because not all values of the Confidence Interval are less than 5, as the Confidence Interval is from 1.8 to 5.8.

Part 3:

We think the results of this poll would be different if the question were asked differently. The survey has Leading Question Bias. Because of the wording , "influence", many respondants might have given low rating. The correct question without this bias is: the role of religion in controlling people's behaviour Further the survey has got Question Order Bias. in case this question were asked immediately following a question about religious service attendance or school prayer because by the former question the respondants are made to incline towards religious aspects of life.

Part 4:

In order to minimize or control for the effects of word choice or question order, the survey questions should be thoroughly studied before approaching the respondants to be deviod of all ambiguities. It should be precise, pointed towards the objective of the survey with proper wordings without any misleading prefixes.