Under what conditions would you prefer a simple exponential
smoothing model to the moving averages method...
Under what conditions would you prefer a simple exponential
smoothing model to the moving averages method for forecasting a
time series? Explain your reasoning.
Solutions
Expert Solution
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This passge below require critical analysis and breakdown
Moving averages, weighted moving averages, and exponential
smoothing methods are forecasting methods that are used for a time
series with a horizontal pattern. These methods provide a high
level of accuracy for short-range forecasts, such as a forecast for
the next time period and are used to smooth out random fluctuations
in the time series and have a high level of accuracy for
short-range forecast. The moving Average method uses the average...
This passge below require critical analysis and breakdown
Moving averages, weighted moving averages, and exponential
smoothing methods are three forecasting methods that are
appropriate for a time series with a horizontal pattern. These
methods are easy to use and generally provide a high level of
accuracy for short-range forecasts, such as a forecast for the next
time period. “The moving averages method uses the average of the
most recent k data values in the time series as the forecast for...
Please run Moving
Average with 2 and 3 periods; Exponential Smoothing with a
smoothing factor, or alpha, of 0.1 , 0.5 and 0.9; and Classical
Decomposition for the data listed below.
Which model is best?
Please explain how you were able to run each model using Microsoft
Excel.
Year
Quarter
Sales
Advertising
1
1
144
41
2
151
51
3
134
32
4
151
45
2
1
145
48
2
145
34
3
141
29
4
166
43
3
1...
Please run Moving
Average with 2 and 3 periods; Exponential Smoothing with a
smoothing factor, or alpha, of 0.1 , 0.5 and 0.9; and Classical
Decomposition for the data listed below.
Which model is best?
Please explain how you were able to run each model using Microsoft
Excel.
Year
Quarter
Sales
Advertising
1
1
144
41
2
151
51
3
134
32
4
151
45
2
1
145
48
2
145
34
3
141
29
4
166
43
3
1...
Use 5 months moving average and exponential smoothing method
(using alpha=0.3) on the following sale of Maggi. You are supposed
to forecast the sale of Maggi in the 13th Month. Compare
whether there is any difference in forecast based on two methods
and Comment.
Period (Month)
Actual Sale of Maggi
1
1100
2
800
3
1000
4
1050
5
1500
6
750
7
700
8
650
9
1400
10
1200
11
900
12
1000
13
Identify situations in which tools such as linear regression and
the moving averages and smoothing techniques used for a business in
predicting future revenues. Which tool is best for long-range
projections? Which is the simplest for a small business?
Why?
Of the three quantitative forecasting techniques (moving
average, weighted moving average, and exponential smoothing), which
do you think provides the most accurate forecast and why?
Problem 1: An organization is considering to generate forecast
for April using exponential smoothing method (smoothing constant α
=0.3) and the 2-period moving average technique. The actual sales
are given in the table for January, February, March. The forecast
for January using exponential smoothing method and the forecast for
January and February using 2-period moving average technique are
provided as well:
Period
Actual sales
Forecast using Exponential Smoothing with α =0.3
Forecast using Simple
2-Period Moving Average
Jan
50
60...
Use an exponential smoothing method with a starting forecast of
21 for month 1 and a smoothing constant α = 0.5 to calculate
month-in-advance forecasts for months 4–12 and forecast for the
first month of next year. Calculate the MAD.