In: Economics
CASE STUDY 1: Lloyds Banking Group Monetary Policy
Committee
You are a voting member of Lloyds Banking Group Monetary Policy
Committee (MPC) and are expected to make a policy decision at the
next MPC meeting in January 2021. The current Repo rate is 4.25%
and the allowable inflation target ranges between 3% to 5%. The
Research department has presented the following global and domestic
market update for your consideration.
Key extracts of the presentation are summarized below:
Extract 1: Global update
According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) for October
2020, the global economy is expected to recover substantially in
2021 following the negative effects of COVID-19. The impact of
COVID-19 outbreak has lessened significantly since the first cases
were made public at the beginning of the year 2020. To curb the
spread of the pandemic, governments worldwide imposed severe
restrictions and lockdown measures, subsequently bringing economic
activities to a virtual standstill in the process. According to the
latest WEO, the global economy is now projected to recover and grow
by 3.8 percent in 2021, which is an upward revision from a 2.3
percent growth published in the WEO update for January 2021. The
upward revision is on the back of successful easing of lockdown
restrictions and resumption of economic activities in both advanced
and emerging market economies. The global output is then projected
to expand by 5.8 percent in 2021.
Extract 2: Emerging market update
Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) improved
moderately in the second half of 2020 and are expected to recover
strongly in 2021. Overall, EMDEs are projected to grow by 2.0
percent in 2020, before recovering to a strong growth of 6.6
percent in 2021. Going forward EMDEs are expected to experience a
sharp recovery in 2021 once the adverse effects from this economic
shock subside.
Extract 3: Domestic market update
1. Domestic growth remained positive during the last
quarter of 2020, supported by construction, wholesale and retail
trade, as well as the communication sectors. In contrast,
activities such as livestock farming and uranium mining performed
weakly.
2. Going forward, the domestic economy is forecasted to
improve in the remainder of 2021, also supported by construction
activities, as well as strong growth in demand. Declining
international commodity prices remain a concern, as it may
negatively affect mineral production.
3. Inflation has shown an upward trend for the past
five months. Annual inflation rose from 4.9 percent in June 2020 to
6.1 percent in January 2021, mainly due to increases in food and
transport prices. As a result, this recent trend of inflation is
expected to average around 7 percent for the year.
4. The annual growth rate in domestic private sector
credit increased steadily to 17.8 percent in December 2020,
compared to 14.3 percent in December 2019. Growth in private sector
credit resulted from higher demand by both individuals and
businesses. The rise in household debt largely reflected strong
growth in unproductive instalment credit and overdraft loans which
remains a concern for the MPC.
5. During the last quarter of 2020, the trade deficit
increased significantly. A rapid growth in imports of vehicles,
partly financed by instalment credit, remains a concern. The total
number of vehicles sold during the last four months of 2020
increased by more than 50 percent, compared to the same period in
2019. The value of imported vehicles amounted to N$2.2 billion,
which is a significant amount in relation to the total import bill
of goods of N$15.9 billion. Unproductive imports have put pressure
on international reserves of the country and require
monitoring.
Extract 4: Key domestic sector updates
Construction Sector update:
The contraction in the construction sector is expected to deepen
during 2020 as projects anticipated to kickstart earlier are likely
to be delayed. The construction sector is expected to contract by
16.3 percent and 1.5 percent in 2020 and 2021, respectively. The
deeper contraction for 2020 is based on expectations that some of
major projects, which were expected to commence in 2020 are likely
to be delayed, mainly due to COVID-19 induced travel restrictions.
This assertion is supported by the recent directive by the Minister
of Finance to SOEs and Government Ministry to suspend capital
projects until further notice.
Uranium Sector update
Uranium mining is similarly projected to contract during 2020,
followed by a mild recovery in 2021. The uranium mining sector is
expected to contract by 22.4 percent in 2020, before expanding by
4.6 percent in 2021. The sector is first and foremost grappling
existing factors that include insufficient supply of water required
for their operations and persistently low uranium prices, viewed
together with the reduction in long-term supply contracts. This
means that uranium mines are more exposed to spot prices, which
squeezes their margins. There is, however, an indication that
COVID-19 and resulting travel restriction have not prevented the
mines from exporting their output thus far and it may not
constitute a major factor in the foreseeable future. The volumes
produced during the first three months of 2020, were 26.4 percent
lower than the production for the corresponding three months of
2019, making any prospects to catch up with 2019 production levels
unlikely.
CASE STUDY 1 QUESTIONS
1. Based on Extracts 1-3 in the case facts presented
above, Recommend the monetary policy stance and decision that
Lloyds Banking Group should take and Justify your recommendation
with three (3) reasons found in Case study 1 above
Justification should include specific facts related to the case study!!!
2. Based on Extract 4 above, Identify one reason for
the expected contraction in the construction sector and two reasons
for expected contraction in the Uranium sector
1) The monetary policy that Lloyd banking group should adopt is expansionary monetary policy. The tools that should be used in this policy are lowering reserve requirements by the banks and lowering of the rate of interest. This will lead to increase in the supply of money in the economy resulting in growth in level of employment, output.
The reasons for taking up such a policy are:
2) The construction sector is expected to contract by 16.3% in 2020. One of the reasons of this contraction is travel restrictions because of COVID-19. The restrictions on travel has led in the delaying of some major construction projects which were expected to commence in 2020.
There is contraction expected in the Uranium sector also by around 22.4% in 2020. The reasons responsible for this contraction are mostly