Question
In: Statistics and Probability
From the following data set, create a scatter diagram and choose a time series analysis method...
From the following data set, create a scatter diagram and choose a
time series analysis method and use it to adjust them and forecast
for month 13, justify because you chose the method you have chosen,
you choose the parameters you need
Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Sales 210 190 240 250 200 170 190 235 160 185 260 145
Solutions
Expert Solution
The scatter diagram is:
The trend analysis method will be used here.
The forecast for month 13 is 184.85.
This method is used because there is a trend in the data.
| Period | Sales | Period(x) | Forecast | Error | Absolute | Squared | Abs Pct Err | |
| Period 1 | 210 | 1 | 218.2051 | -8.20513 | 8.205128 | 67.32413 | 03.91% | |
| Period 2 | 190 | 2 | 215.4254 | -25.4254 | 25.42541 | 646.4514 | 13.38% | |
| Period 3 | 240 | 3 | 212.6457 | 27.35431 | 27.35431 | 748.2584 | 11.40% | |
| Period 4 | 250 | 4 | 209.866 | 40.13403 | 40.13403 | 1610.741 | 16.05% | |
| Period 5 | 200 | 5 | 207.0862 | -7.08625 | 7.086247 | 50.2149 | 03.54% | |
| Period 6 | 170 | 6 | 204.3065 | -34.3065 | 34.30653 | 1176.938 | 20.18% | |
| Period 7 | 190 | 7 | 201.5268 | -11.5268 | 11.52681 | 132.8673 | 06.07% | |
| Period 8 | 235 | 8 | 198.7471 | 36.25291 | 36.25291 | 1314.274 | 15.43% | |
| Period 9 | 160 | 9 | 195.9674 | -35.9674 | 35.96737 | 1293.651 | 22.48% | |
| Period 10 | 185 | 10 | 193.1876 | -8.18765 | 8.187646 | 67.03754 | 04.43% | |
| Period 11 | 260 | 11 | 190.4079 | 69.59207 | 69.59207 | 4843.057 | 26.77% | |
| Period 12 | 145 | 12 | 187.6282 | -42.6282 | 42.62821 | 1817.164 | 29.40% | |
| Total | 1.14E-13 | 346.6667 | 13767.98 | 173.03% | ||||
| Intercept | 220.984848 | Average | 9.47E-15 | 28.88889 | 1147.331 | 14.42% | ||
| Slope | -2.7797203 | Bias | MAD | MSE | MAPE | |||
| SE | 37.10523 | |||||||
| Forecast | 184.848485 | 13 | ||||||
| Correlation | -0.27257 | |||||||
| Coefficient of determination | 0.074292 |
orchestra answered 1 year agoRelated Solutions
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0.950
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0.878
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y 4 8 11 13 18
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0.811
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0.754
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0.707
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11
0.602
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13
0.553
14
0.532
15
0.514
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0.497
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1
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y
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6
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0
2
4
5
6
6
y
6.0
5.8
4.7
3.0
2.1
2.3
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x
2
4
6
6
7
y
4
8
12
12
20
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3
0.997
4
0.950
5
0.878
6
0.811
7
0.754
8
0.707
9
0.666
10
0.632
11
0.602
12
0.576
13
0.553
14
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15
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