Question

In: Statistics and Probability

From the following data set, create a scatter diagram and choose a time series analysis method...


From the following data set, create a scatter diagram and choose a time series analysis method and use it to adjust them and forecast for month 13, justify because you chose the method you have chosen, you choose the parameters you need

Month 1   2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Sales 210 190 240 250 200 170 190 235 160 185 260 145

Solutions

Expert Solution

The scatter diagram is:

The trend analysis method will be used here.

The forecast for month 13 is 184.85.

This method is used because there is a trend in the data.

Period Sales Period(x) Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 210 1 218.2051 -8.20513 8.205128 67.32413 03.91%
Period 2 190 2 215.4254 -25.4254 25.42541 646.4514 13.38%
Period 3 240 3 212.6457 27.35431 27.35431 748.2584 11.40%
Period 4 250 4 209.866 40.13403 40.13403 1610.741 16.05%
Period 5 200 5 207.0862 -7.08625 7.086247 50.2149 03.54%
Period 6 170 6 204.3065 -34.3065 34.30653 1176.938 20.18%
Period 7 190 7 201.5268 -11.5268 11.52681 132.8673 06.07%
Period 8 235 8 198.7471 36.25291 36.25291 1314.274 15.43%
Period 9 160 9 195.9674 -35.9674 35.96737 1293.651 22.48%
Period 10 185 10 193.1876 -8.18765 8.187646 67.03754 04.43%
Period 11 260 11 190.4079 69.59207 69.59207 4843.057 26.77%
Period 12 145 12 187.6282 -42.6282 42.62821 1817.164 29.40%
Total 1.14E-13 346.6667 13767.98 173.03%
Intercept 220.984848 Average 9.47E-15 28.88889 1147.331 14.42%
Slope -2.7797203 Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 37.10523
Forecast 184.848485 13
Correlation -0.27257
Coefficient of determination 0.074292

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