Question

Colleges and universities are facing financial challenges. How has this impacted the current production capacity (supple decision) of these institutions i.e., teaching as many students as possible in this current Covid-19 environment? What possible long-term implications might this have if any?

Answer 1

While COVID19 is primarily affecting public health, spillover effects can already be observed in education, stemming largely from extended school closures. The following are among the key issues to consider: To date, COVID19-driven school closures have impacted over one billion students. By current World Bank information gathering, at the time of writing this note, 150 countries are reporting school closures. These numbers have increased rapidly since late February. School closure decisions have to balance different factors. On one hand, despite the low rates of infection among children, school closures are a critical pillar of the social distancing tools to mitigate the spread of the disease and avoid an acceleration of cases that will put a strain on health services. Its effectiveness as a measure to slow down the spread of contagion will depend on the exact timing of the closures, the age structure of the population and the length of the closure. Recent guidance from the United States Center for Disease Control (US-CDC) suggests that school closures do serve a purpose, in particular if COVID19 cases are school-based, to allow for decontamination and contact tracing. It also recognizes its importance as a tool to increase social distance. The reports note that a closure of 4 to 8 weeks might be required in case of substantial community spread. On the other hand, extended interrupted education that disengage students from the learning process has the potential cost of reversing gains in learning results. An even higher cost comes from the disengagement of students with learning challenges (academic, socio-economic, students with special/diverse educational needs or persons with disabilities) who may not effectively cope with remote learning strategies or cannot access the information (see next section). Where school feeding is the norm, closed schools might preclude students getting school meals unless alternative arrangements are in place. In secondary schools, longer school closures could result in an increased risk of dropout for youth, particularly from lower income. The process of addressing crises in the education sector seems cyclical. Countries begin “preparing”, a response in anticipation of a known or unknown crisis. When amidst the crisis, they move to “coping” and thus, implementing measures to minimize the negative impact. This can include introducing protocols for screenings in schools, rolling out hygiene practice campaigns, imposing school closures, offering distance learning, using closed schools for emergency purposes, etc. As the emergency phase dissipates, communities move into a “recovery” mode and governments implement policies and measures to regain lost time. The approaches may include adjustments to the academic calendar, prioritizing grades preparing for standard examinations, continuing with distance learning in parallel to schools, etc. Those countries that have shown greater resilience in repeated crises are those who were able to benefit from lesson learned and use the momentum to re-prepare, investing and reinforcing systems going forward. School closings also impact labor supply as they increase the burden on parents, who need to stay home or find new arrangements if children have to stay at home (even worse if playground and children centers are closed). Differences in the weights given to these aspects influence authorities’ choices of if and when to close schools. While some countries closed schools out of abundant caution (many in Africa), a select few (the UK, New Zealand, Mexico, Switzerland) delayed closing until recently. It remains to be seen what effects the various policies will have on the virus spread (Singapore has kept schools open.) In countries where the breakout is isolated, some governments have opted to close schools in the immediate location or region orschools have self-selected themselves to close as a precautionary measure or to sanitize before returning kids to the classroom. Portugal, Spain, and India are examples of countries who used regional closures as an attempt to contain or slow the spread.

The Long term implications include

1. Decrease in wage rate for teachers

2. Increase in school fees once the school reopens

3. Fall in the quality of education

4. Increase in Educated Unemployment