Question

Which of the three causes of war identified by the bargaining theory of war is likely to be more severe in interstate versus civil war? Why?

Answer 1

First lets see what 3 causes of war are according to bargaining theory of war. These are

• Uncertainty: When the parties are not sure of either their own ability (they overestimate it) or of the opponent (they underestimate it). This causes them to go to war as they are sure of winning.
• Commitment Problems: When the actor can't commit that they wont use violence or war in the future. They can't commit to it. This often leads to pre-emptive strikes as the other party thinks its better to attack first.
• Indivisibility of a good: When the parties believe that the resource they are fighting for cant be divided.

In my opinion, in interstate wars, commitment problems is the one which is more severe. This is because there are no common threads between two states in a war- separate people, separate systems and separate thoughts. This leads to commitment problems as both parties are suspicious. When both are doubting, both will think its better to strike pre-emptively.

In civil war though, indivisibility of a good is more severe because now both parties are fighting over a resource (country etc) and if they think they cant share it, then to completely annihilate the opposition is the only way and that will lead to bad outcomes in a civil war.