Question

The formula is: Te = (o + 4m + p) / 6

Calculate duration estimates for the following situation:

The operations manager was in the process of upgrading the IT network and preparing estimates from the technology installers in regards to how long the existing network would be down during the upgrade. The technologists believed that it could be done within 8 days if everything went according to plan. There is the possibility it could take up to 16 days if they ran into hardware difficulties. The operations manager asked if there was any way to decrease the number of days. The technologists thought that if they focused all resources, they could be done in as soon as 6 days. Using the beta distribution method, what is the estimated time to complete this task?

Answer 1

Answer-

Beta Distribution Method to Estimate Project Completion Time -

This method is used to estimate the time of a project. This is a weighted average method as (O+4M+P)/6. It gives weight to M by 4 and 2 for each O and P hence divided by 6 in total. The formula used in this method is Te = (O + 4M + P) / 6. Here, Te= Time estimation or Expected Time, O=Optimistic like situation will be smooth as planned, M=Most likely as threat and opportunities and P=Pessimistic means whatever planned that will not work and situation could be worse.

Calculation of duration estimates-

Here in this question we have -

Optimistic (O)= 8 days if everything went according to plan

Most likely (M)= 6 days if they focused all resources

Pessimistic (P)= 16 days if they ran into hardware difficulties

Te = (O + 4M + P) / 6

Te = (8 days + 4*6 days + 16 days) / 6

Te = 8+24+16 / 6

Te = 48 / 6

Te = 8 days

However, we have estimated project duration that is 8 days to complete this task using Beta Distribution Method.

Hope you like the given answer, please give this answer a like :) Happy Learning. Thank you so much.