Question

After the first interview, ABC Telecom could not decide whom to hire as the new project manager. Since Tom did well in his first interview, he was invited back to attend the second interview. He was given the following problem to solve:  The company is bidding for a tender to install and commission a fibre communication network at the new headquarter for AIG Australia Ltd located on Park Street, Sydney. The new headquarter occupies five (5) floors in a 20-storey commercial building and has a combined floor area of 4,000 sq. metres.  As the project manager, Tom is asked by his supervisor to provide an estimate of how long the project might take since the client has requested this information specifically for the kick-off project meeting in a week’s time. Tom’s supervisor told him that what the client wants are probabilities of finishing the project within a specified period of time, such as in four (4) weeks, five (5) weeks, or six (6) weeks’ time, for instance. a) If you were Tom, what would be your approach in calculating these probabilities. To receive full marks, you must describe your approach fully. [10 Marks] b) Below are listed the figures which are needed to come up with the measures that he could report to the client. Project initiation, scoping and planning estimates  6 weeks: 10%  7 weeks: 50%  8 weeks: 40% Project execution, closure and handover estimates  10 weeks: 20%  11 weeks: 40%  12 weeks: 40% For his report to the client, Tom decided to present those measures in a tree diagram that highlighted the estimates. i. Please help Tom draw the tree diagram. [3 Marks] ii. What would be the chance of finishing the project within 16 weeks? 21 weeks? To receive full marks, you must show your steps clearly.

Answer 1

a)

If i were Tom i will approch decision tree to find the probabilities.In this decision tree we have so many chances are available for the problem .So this is good approch to solve the problem.

b)

• Decision Tree

A is chance node for project initiation,scoping and planning estimates.

1 and 2 and 3 are the chance for the project excution,closer and handover estimates.

this problem does not include any decision node.

• calculation of probabilities for finishing with in 16 weeks.we have only one chance of completing project with in 16 weeks. i.e , "A-->1-->10 weeks" .

​​​​​​​Probability can be calculated simply by multiplying probability for both chance node, i.e, 0.10 * 0.20 = 0.02 =>2%