Question

China's economy slowing down is not news in itself. For years, Beijing has broadcast that it's going to focus on quality - not quantity - of growth.

But still, we should be worried.

Slower growth in China means slower growth for the rest of the world.

It accounts for one-third of global growth. Jobs, exports, commodity producing nations - we all depend on China to buy stuff from us.

• China annual growth hits slowest in decades

Slower growth in China also means it is harder for China to address its mountain of debt, even with the Communist Party's undoubted ability to be able to support the economy.

Crunching the numbers

One important caveat: It's important to remember official growth figures from China should always be taken with a pinch of salt. Growth is thought to be much lower than what Beijing says it is.

A good guide, I've been told, is to discount 100 basis points from what the government says to get a more realistic sense of how the economy is doing.

With the latest figures that means China's annual growth rate could be as low, if not lower, than 5.6%.

The impact in Asia

Over the past decade, China has become the largest trading partner for most of Asia, buying up integrated circuits, crude petroleum, iron and copper ore.

So if China slows down and doesn't buy as much stuff from the region, it slows down too.

Growth in the Asia Pacific region is expected to slow this year to 6% from 6.3% last year, according to the World Bank.

More pessimistic views show emerging Asia growing at its weakest rate since the financial crisis, echoing China.

The US-China trade war isn't helping either. It may not have caused China's slowdown, but it is depressing sentiment at a time when China could do without it.

Economists say many of Asia's economies that sell to China - such as Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam - will be hardest hit.

The data is already confirming this. The worry is that as China's economy slows, consumers there will buy less.

Confidence amongst Asian companies is also wobbly, showing China's slowdown as one of two main concerns for growth in 2019, along with the US-China trade war.

India still thrives

Still there is some cause for optimism in Asia.

India's economy - the world's fastest growing - doesn't sell as much to China as some of the smaller countries in Asia, as this study from the Asia Development Bank shows.

The World Bank expects India to post 7.3% annual growth this year and 7.5% over the next two years.

Increased spending by India's middle class is expected to help boost growth in the country, and despite a major political event coming this year in the form of elections, that steady growth is expected to continue.

Beijing lends support

China has pumped in more than $80bn (£62.2bn) into the financial system to encourage lending by banks to companies so they can hire more people and build more factories.

There is no evidence to show that this is happening yet, but most economists agree that by the end of the year economic activity should have picked up.

Tax cuts are also expected in 2019, and that could lift growth by about half a percentage point according to JP Morgan.

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Japanese bank Nomura agrees, saying that China will see a rebound in second half of this year and that's when Asia will "shine", and will start to be "widely appreciated as the undisputed locomotive of the world economy."

Then there's also an unintended, but positive, effect of the US-China trade war, which is evidence of increased business for countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, India and the Philippines as companies shift their supply chains from China to escape tariffs.

Still, longer term the world will have to get used to a slower rate of growth in China, as Mark Williams of Capital Economics points out.

"As China gets richer, its growth rate is going to slow. All successful economies go through this," he said. "That growth will slow even more significantly in the next five to 10 years."

Which means the next time you see a headline that says China's growth is slowing down, don't be surprised. Be prepared.

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Required Question

Read the article and answer the following questions:

1. What is economic growth? Explain using the production possibilities frontier.
2. At what rate did China grow in 2018? How is this calculated? (Cite source)
3. What is UAE’s economic growth? (Find the latest possible numbers and cite a source)
4. Why is slowing economic growth in China a problem for the rest of the world? Explain in not more than 300 words. [4 points]
5. Name 3 things China can do to fix the problem of slowing growth.

Answer 1

Economic growth is an increase in the production of goods and services over a specific period. It creates more profit for the businesses. It can be measured in nominal or real terms, the atter of which is adjusted for inflation. Traditionally, aggregate economic growth is measued in terms of gross national produce (GNP) or gross domestic product (GDP), although alternative metrics are also used.

So, in terms of production possibility frontier(PPF) economic growth has two meanings:

1. Firstly, growth is defined as an increase in the output that an economy produces over a period of time, the minimum being two consecutive quarters.

2. Secondly, growth is an increase in what an economy can produce if it is using all its scarce resources. An increase in an economy's productive potential can be shown by an outward shift in the economy's production possibility frontier(PPF).

Growth rate is calculated by subtracting the past value with the current value and then dividing the value with the past value and then multiply it with 100 to express it as a percentage.

The UAE consist of seven emirates including Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Sharjah, Ajman, Al-Fujayrah,Al-qsywan and Ras Al-Khaima, which is under the governance of Federal Supreme Council(FSC). UAE is rich and open economy with a high per capita income and a huge annual trade surplus. Actual GDP-growth is the rsult of growth in GDP- capacity and the utilisation of existing capacity. GDP-capacity is determined by the availability of factors of production- capital and labour-as well as the state of technology. The impact of capacity utilisation has to do with the fact that if idle capacity is reduced, actual GDP can grow faster than GDP-capacity. So, when examining economic growth, one can calculate the contribution of the additional use of labour, the contribution of the additional use of capital, the impact of technological change and the impact of changes in the utilisation rate using the model.

Affect of slow pacing china in different sectors of the world:

1. China's integration with the world economy has benefitted multinational businesses and national economies, providing access to its vast domestic market and competitive industrial and labour productivity.

2.While China may not suffer a prolonged economic stagnation, the country's express growth rates will not return,setting instead between an estimated five to six percent.

3.Investors based in the country must track the economic performance of respective sectors and regions more closely to hedge against risks effectively.

4.All industries do not suffer equally in a slowdown, as consumers cut back on discretionary spending, the exenditure on essential items like food and beverage products, alcohol, cosmetics, education, and healthcare will contribute.

5. According to the Institute of International Finance, an association of financial institutions, China's corporate, household and government debt hit 303% of GDP in the first quarter of 2019, if the chinese government is no longer able to manage its debt, banks, businesses might suddenly fail, and global investors will scramble to protect their assets.

The three points to improve the China's economy:

1. They need to increase their accounting transparency. so that their stock markets can be more efficient. Efficient stock markets, where values are based on fundamentals rather than one speculation.

2. The Chinese government needs to hand over their state control owned enterprises to private investors.

3.China needs to accelerate its efforts to increase domestic consumption.