Suppose a college student at a university presents to a physician with symptoms of headaches, fever,...

Suppose a college student at a university presents to a physician with symptoms of headaches, fever, and joint pain. Let A = {headaches, fever, and joint pain}, and suppose that the possible disease state of the patient can be partitioned into: B1 = normal, B2 = common cold, B3 = mumps. From clinical experience, the physician estimates P (AjBi ): P (AjB1) = 0.001, P (AjB2) = 0.70, P (AjB3) = 0.95. The physician, aware that some students have contracted the mumps, then estimates that for students at this university, P (B1) = 0.95, P (B2) = 0.025, and P (B3) = 0.025.

Given the previous symptoms, which of the disease states is most likely? Be sure to clearly show your work.

Expert Solution

Given the previous symptoms, the mumps is the disease which is most likely as its probability is 0.5627962085 which is maximum.

orchestra answered 2 years ago

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