Question

In: Statistics and Probability

Year Quarter Revenue 2005 Qtr1 5,200 Qtr2 6,296 Qtr3 6,023 Qtr4 5,537 2006 Qtr1 5,103 Qtr2...

Year Quarter Revenue
2005 Qtr1 5,200
Qtr2 6,296
Qtr3 6,023
Qtr4 5,537
2006 Qtr1 5,103
Qtr2 6,445
Qtr3 6,394
Qtr4 5,885
2007 Qtr1 6,055
Qtr2 7,685
Qtr3 7,642
Qtr4 7,283
2008 Qtr1 7,340
Qtr2 9,025
Qtr3 8,293
Qtr4 7,005
2009 Qtr1 7,110
Qtr2 8,204
Qtr3 8,005
Qtr4 7,456
2010 Qtr1 7,600
Qtr2 8,651
Qtr3 8,403
Qtr4 10,471

(a-1) Use MegaStat or Minitab to deseasonalize Coca-Cola’s quarterly data. (Round your answers to 3 decimal places.)

1 2 3 4
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
mean


(a-2) State the adjusted four quarterly indexes. (Round your answers to 3 decimal places.)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4


(a-3) What is the trend model for the deseasonalized time series? (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)

yt =  xt +

(b) State the model found when performing a regression using seasonal binaries. (A negative value should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your answers to 4 decimal places.)

yt =  +  t +  Q1 +  Q2 +  Q3

(c) Use the regression equation to make a prediction for each quarter in 2011. (Enter your answers in millions rounded to 3 decimal places.)

Quarter Predicted
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4

Solutions

Expert Solution

megastat o/p

t Year Qtr Sales four quarter moving average centered moving average Ratio to CMA Seasonal Indexes Sales deseasonalized
1 2005 1 5,200 0.923 5636.3
2 2005 2 6,296 1.089 5783.6
3 2005 3 6,023 5764 5751.875 1.047 1.048 5746.2
4 2005 4 5,537 5739.75 5758.375 0.962 0.941 5886.4
5 2006 1 5,103 5777 5823.375 0.876 0.923 5531.2
6 2006 2 6,445 5869.75 5913.25 1.090 1.089 5920.5
7 2006 3 6,394 5956.75 6075.75 1.052 1.048 6100.2
8 2006 4 5,885 6194.75 6349.75 0.927 0.941 6256.3
9 2007 1 6,055 6504.75 6660.75 0.909 0.923 6563.0
10 2007 2 7,685 6816.75 6991.5 1.099 1.089 7059.6
11 2007 3 7,642 7166.25 7326.875 1.043 1.048 7290.8
12 2007 4 7,283 7487.5 7655 0.951 0.941 7742.6
13 2008 1 7,340 7822.5 7903.875 0.929 0.923 7955.9
14 2008 2 9,025 7985.25 7950.5 1.135 1.089 8290.5
15 2008 3 8,293 7915.75 7887 1.051 1.048 7911.9
16 2008 4 7,005 7858.25 7755.625 0.903 0.941 7447.0
17 2009 1 7,110 7653 7617 0.933 0.923 7706.6
18 2009 2 8,204 7581 7637.375 1.074 1.089 7536.3
19 2009 3 8,005 7693.75 7755 1.032 1.048 7637.1
20 2009 4 7,456 7816.25 7872.125 0.947 0.941 7926.5
21 2010 1 7,600 7928 7977.75 0.953 0.923 8237.7
22 2010 2 8,651 8027.5 8404.375 1.029 1.089 7946.9
23 2010 3 8,403 8781.25 1.048 8016.8
24 2010 4 10,471 0.941 11131.7

a-1)

Calculation of Seasonal Indexes
1 2 3 4
2005 1.047 0.962
2006 0.876 1.090 1.052 0.927
2007 0.909 1.099 1.043 0.951
2008 0.929 1.135 1.051 0.903
2009 0.933 1.074 1.032 0.947
2010 0.953 1.029
mean: 0.920 1.086 1.045 0.938
a-2) adjusted: 0.923 1.089 1.048 0.941

a-3) Yt=   154.71   *x +   5285.34

b)  Yt=5168.1583+150.3339*t+-420.4982*Q1+745.5012*Q2+337.5006*Q3                      

c)

forecast for next Quarter period
Q1= 8506.008
Q2= 9822.342
Q3= 9564.675
Q4= 9377.508

orchestra answered 2 years ago
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