In: Economics
Owners of an economy motel chain are considering building a new 200-unit motel. The present worth cost of building the motel is $8,000,000 and the firm estimates furnishings for the motel will cost an additional $800,000 and will require replacement every 5 years. Annual operating and maintenance costs for the facility are estimated to be $750,000 and the average rate for a unit is anticipated to be $50/day. A 15 year planning horizon is used by the firm for ventures of this type; a terminal salvage value of 15% of the original building cost is anticipated, and furnishings have no salvage value at the end of each replacement cycle. Assuming average daily occupancy percentages of 50%, 60%, 70%, 80% for years 1 through 4, respectively, and 90% for years 5-15, MARR of 12%, 365 operating days per year and ignoring the cost of the land, should the motel be built? Make your decision using each of the following measures of worth:
a. Present Worth
b. IRR
Working notes:
(A) If occupancy (in percent) is P%, annual revenue = 200 x P x $50 x 365 = $3,650,000 x P
(B) Market value in (terminal) year 15 (Added to revenue of year 15) = $8,000,000 x 0.15 = $1,200,000
(C) In years 5 and 10, total annual costs will be higher $800,000 (cost of additional furnishing). It is assumed that the motel will not replace furnishing in the last year of operation (year 15), when it will sell the motel.
(D) Annual net benefit (NB) = Annual revenue - Annual cost
(E) Cash flow of the operations is charted below.
Year | Occupancy (%) | Cost ($) | Revenue ($) | NB ($) |
(1) | (2) | (3)=$3,650,000x(1) | (4)=(3)-(2) | |
0 | 80,00,000 | -80,00,000 | ||
1 | 50 | 7,50,000 | 18,25,000 | 10,75,000 |
2 | 60 | 7,50,000 | 21,90,000 | 14,40,000 |
3 | 70 | 7,50,000 | 25,55,000 | 18,05,000 |
4 | 80 | 7,50,000 | 29,20,000 | 21,70,000 |
5 | 90 | 15,50,000 | 32,85,000 | 17,35,000 |
6 | 90 | 7,50,000 | 32,85,000 | 25,35,000 |
7 | 90 | 7,50,000 | 32,85,000 | 25,35,000 |
8 | 90 | 7,50,000 | 32,85,000 | 25,35,000 |
9 | 90 | 7,50,000 | 32,85,000 | 25,35,000 |
10 | 90 | 15,50,000 | 32,85,000 | 17,35,000 |
11 | 90 | 7,50,000 | 32,85,000 | 25,35,000 |
12 | 90 | 7,50,000 | 32,85,000 | 25,35,000 |
13 | 90 | 7,50,000 | 32,85,000 | 25,35,000 |
14 | 90 | 7,50,000 | 32,85,000 | 25,35,000 |
15 | 90 | 7,50,000 | 44,85,000 | 37,35,000 |
Therefore,
(a) Present worth (PW) of NAB is computed as follows [PV factor in year N = 1 / (1.12)N]
Year | NB ($) | PV factor @12% | Discounted NB ($) |
(4) | (5) | (4)x(5) | |
0 | -80,00,000 | 1.0000 | -80,00,000 |
1 | 10,75,000 | 0.8929 | 9,59,821 |
2 | 14,40,000 | 0.7972 | 11,47,959 |
3 | 18,05,000 | 0.7118 | 12,84,763 |
4 | 21,70,000 | 0.6355 | 13,79,074 |
5 | 17,35,000 | 0.5674 | 9,84,486 |
6 | 25,35,000 | 0.5066 | 12,84,310 |
7 | 25,35,000 | 0.4523 | 11,46,705 |
8 | 25,35,000 | 0.4039 | 10,23,844 |
9 | 25,35,000 | 0.3606 | 9,14,146 |
10 | 17,35,000 | 0.3220 | 5,58,624 |
11 | 25,35,000 | 0.2875 | 7,28,752 |
12 | 25,35,000 | 0.2567 | 6,50,671 |
13 | 25,35,000 | 0.2292 | 5,80,957 |
14 | 25,35,000 | 0.2046 | 5,18,711 |
15 | 37,35,000 | 0.1827 | 6,82,371 |
PW of NB ($) = | 58,45,195 |
Since PW > 0, motel should be built.
(b IRR of annual net benefits is computed using Excel IRR function, as follows.
Year | Occupancy (%) | Cost ($) | Revenue ($) | NB ($) |
(1) | (2) | (3)=$3,650,000x(1) | (4)=(3)-(2) | |
0 | 80,00,000 | -80,00,000 | ||
1 | 50 | 7,50,000 | 18,25,000 | 10,75,000 |
2 | 60 | 7,50,000 | 21,90,000 | 14,40,000 |
3 | 70 | 7,50,000 | 25,55,000 | 18,05,000 |
4 | 80 | 7,50,000 | 29,20,000 | 21,70,000 |
5 | 90 | 15,50,000 | 32,85,000 | 17,35,000 |
6 | 90 | 7,50,000 | 32,85,000 | 25,35,000 |
7 | 90 | 7,50,000 | 32,85,000 | 25,35,000 |
8 | 90 | 7,50,000 | 32,85,000 | 25,35,000 |
9 | 90 | 7,50,000 | 32,85,000 | 25,35,000 |
10 | 90 | 15,50,000 | 32,85,000 | 17,35,000 |
11 | 90 | 7,50,000 | 32,85,000 | 25,35,000 |
12 | 90 | 7,50,000 | 32,85,000 | 25,35,000 |
13 | 90 | 7,50,000 | 32,85,000 | 25,35,000 |
14 | 90 | 7,50,000 | 32,85,000 | 25,35,000 |
15 | 90 | 7,50,000 | 44,85,000 | 37,35,000 |
IRR of NB (%) = | 22.26% |
Since IRR > MARR, motel should be built.