Question

Covid-19 has disrupted lives worldwide, claiming the lives of thousands in many countries. One of the early forecasts for the number of deaths due to Covid-19 in the US was over 2 million. The forecast number in the UK was 510,000. More recent updates from this early forecast now is 100,000 to 200,000 in the US and likely no more than 20,000 in the UK.

1) How could these forecasts be so far apart?

2) What variables would you use to make your forecast of the number of deaths which might result from Covid-19? Be sure to indicate the relationship between your variable and the number of deaths (is each variable negatively or positively related to the number of deaths). Your variable should also be quantifiable.

Answer 1

1) Most of the forecasts have changed because of the massive government policy imposing restrictions on movement of people both across and within borders. This is the first time a pandemic has occurred in the age of social media and this results in additional panic (sometimes unwarranted). The governments were very well prepared this time due to fast spread of news and have committed huge sums of money in improving the healthcare system ( like producing more ventilators, procuring better protective equipment for doctors etc.) Perhaps, the earlier forecasts failed to take the urgency of government action into account and resulted in over estimating the impact of Covid-19

2) Some important variables are:

a) Efficiency of government action. As already discussed above, if timely, it can greatly reduce the impact of deaths from the virus. It can be measured by the sums of money that the government has committed towards the relief package for the healthcare sector and supporting the poor people.

b) Social networks in a country. Since the virus spreads through human contact, it is necessary to understand the nature of social contact on the country. If the country is one where people prefer to live in joint families and have closely-knit communities, the spread of the virus can be deadlier can cause more damage to life. This can be measured by looking at population density in the country.

c) Temperature patterns. Since most of the viruses in the past have tended to become less vicious at higher temperatures, the expected increase in temperatures may help in controlling the spread and reducing the life loss. This can be easily observed by looking at past year's monthly temperature cycle for a country