Question

Prepare a detailed report describing a possible, research-based, scenario for the future in any organisation. talk about 4 positive and negative effects each based on the follow factors . Social , Technological, Environmental, Economical. Political. 1500 words

Answer 1

To frame plans and Business strategies, forcasting of any organisation is very useful.,it includes economic environment,political environment,technical environment etc.Preparation to face future uncertainity is possible on the basis of environmental forecasting and continuity of business can be maintained.Business forecasting is an estimate for future happenings by establishing the inter relationship in a logical manner among various factors.

Social factors : Various social factors are affecting to business, Hence, it is essential to forecast the possible changes in the concern social factors. it includes population growth / decline, ethnic composition of population, age , structure of population , rural urban distribution of population , occupational pattern, migration , education , family style , social attitude etc.social and cultural factors includes peoples bliefs , languages , values , purchase habits etc.as social factors change there is change in demand of vaious products.

In the case of social forecast varoius published and unpublished data of forecast of social trends available. international organisation such as U.N, World bank academic and Government organisations have done notable work in these area. For an example huge data is available regarding future trend in birth rate ,death rates ,poplation size, age structure.

Technological factors : Innovation and other Technological development creates more changes in business environment.therefore Technological forecast is very useful and essential.Technological forecast includes not only technologial innovation but also speed of its expension, its entry and effects are considered, For example, what will be the pace and entry of personal Computer and Internet and their effects on business? How far it will be possible to adopt existing and new technologies in different areas and what will be their imlications.

Technical factors include mechanical instruments, innovation electricity, technicians,etc,new product exist due to innovations.

It should be noted that one of the eight components used in world competitiveness index is technolgy. it measure usage of computer the spread of new technology, the capacity of the country to absorb new technologies level and quality of new research and deveopment etc., should be considered.

Political factors: For popluar prediction of future scenario of business political forecast play an important role. there are chances of drastic changes in monetary and indutrial policy, import-export and taxation policy.there is possibility of changes in power of political parties, chnages in leadership, political alliances, political ideology etc,.may affects on business. some political factors are also connected with social fators.

political factors include goverment policy, law, controls, political changes etc.,

some political changes are difficult to predict, but in certain cases it is possible to predict.several political factors creates international effects.formal and informal sactions, which have serious consequences for business.

Increasing world independence makes it essential for firms of all size to consider the international political involvement while framing their strategis.Research department and thier experts have developed different approaches to forecast political factors.

Economical factors : Forecasting of economic environment is very important element for business activity . important economic environment include general economic conditions of country , G.D.P. growth rate , Per capita income ,Distribution of income , Structual change in GDP.

There are number of sources for short term, medium and long term forecasts.International organisation such as world bank, IMF, UNCTAD , UN ,WTO etc.regional organisation such as asian development Bank publish periodic and occasional publications which provide interim economic forecast.for planning and framing strategies relible forecasting give very useful picture of the future scenario.short term economic forecast are demand and sales forecasting and to frame market strategies.

Environmental Facors: Many facors are included in business environment. some factors affect long time.while some factors affect business unit at present or short period .

Business environment broadly classified into two parts,Internal environment and External environment,

Internal factors are generally under the control of management and they can change and modified such as personal physical facilities, organisation and function equipments, procuct mix, marketing mix, price mix,after sale sevices, advertisement.

External environment of business includes new technology, goverment policy, relief in taxation,unsatisfied need of customer ,Postive effects of these external factors are known as business "opportunities" and its negative effects are known as "threats."