First, read the attached article.
What’s worse: monopoly power or government
intervention?
Politicians of all stripes increasingly agree with Karl Marx
on one point –
that monopolies are an inevitable consequence of
free-market
capitalism, and must be broken up. Are they right? Stuart
Watkins isn’t
so sure.
by: Stuart Watkins
1 OCT 2020
MoneyWeek
Free markets left to themselves in a capitalist context are
great at producing wealth, but will
inevitably tend to concentrate that wealth in ever fewer
hands, leading to increasing inequalities
of income, power and wealth, and undermining the benefits that
might be supposed to flow to
consumers, such as cheaper prices. The logic inherent in
market exchange must, in other words,
progressively undermine the very qualities that the champions
of the market promise they will
deliver.
This, at least, was the view of Karl Marx. Perhaps
surprisingly, it is also the mainstream view
today. It is not all that easy to find a mainstream
commentator, economist, think-tanker or
policymaker who will raise a squeak of protest against the
idea. All the main political parties –
particularly in the US, where the problem is deemed to be
particularly acute – agree that
something must be done to curb the rise of the monopolies,
namely that the state should step in
and break them up, or at least restrain them.
Indeed, “Market Power, Inequality and Financial Instability” –
a new paper by Federal Reserve
Board economists Isabel Cairo and Jae Sim – argues that the
concentration of market power in a
handful of companies, and the resulting decline in
competition, explains the deepening of
inequality and financial instability in the US, as Craig
Torres reports on Bloomberg. They blame
the rising market power of big companies for the decline in
the share of wealth that goes to
workers, the rise in inequalities of wealth and income, and
the growing debt burden. The authors
call for policies that will redistribute wealth to the poor,
perhaps by gradually raising the tax on
dividend income from zero to 30%. They suggest that such
policies might help to slow the rise of
inequality and the growth in debt, and make financial crises
less likely.
The paper is just the latest voice in a rising chorus. Towards
the end of last year, The Great
Reversal, a book by economist Thomas Philippon, presented a
detailed empirical analysis of the
question and argued that America can no longer be considered a
free-market economy in any real sense. As well as confirming that
the trends already sketched are indeed in play, he concludes
that the main explanation is political – namely, that
politicians have not enforced competition
policy as they should, thanks in part to lobbying and campaign
contributions. The result, to quote
just one example, is that the price of broadband access in the
US is roughly double that of
comparable countries, leading to predictably higher
profits.
The year before Philippon’s book, a similar one by Jonathan
Tepper and Denise Hearn (The
Myth of Capitalism) made the same point. “I realised that
particularly in the US, which is
probably the most advanced in this trend, you’re seeing more
and more industrial concentration,”
he said in an interview with MoneyWeek at the time of
publication. That gives companies
pricing power over consumers, more power over workers as they
don’t have to bid against rivals
for their labour, and power over suppliers. The result is that
a small number of huge companies
are capturing very high profit margins. Tepper, too, blames
lax enforcement of competition laws
for the problem.
The problem may be about to get worse. The response of
governments to the coronavirus
pandemic has led to a huge economic crisis, and their response
to what they have caused is to
throw money at it. The combined effect will be to push smaller
firms out of business, quenching
the fires of creative destruction, and for the well-connected,
better organised larger companies to
obtain all the government cash and bolster their already
dominant position. Low interest rates
may also contribute, as bigger companies are in a better
position to get hold of cheap credit and
invest it in expansion. If rising concentration and monopolies
are a problem, it’s one that seems
set to get worse.
The case for the defense
Are Marx and his mainstream followers correct? The answer, as
ever, is – it’s complicated. A
sounder tradition in economics would lead us to be cautious
about the claims from first
principles. As Edmond Bradley, a writer for the Mises
Institute, put it back when Microsoft was
the monopolistic bogeyman in the early 2000s, “the fear of
industrial concentration is the last
refuge of socialist theory” and the idea that governments must
step in to save us from it is
“wildly incorrect”. A company operating in a market economy
might look like a monopoly
“under myopically static analysis”, but a broader and
historical view will reveal that even very
large, dominant companies face intense competitive pressure –
whether from the fear of potential
competition from new entrants eyeing their high profits; or
from competitors offering products
and services of a different but nevertheless substitutable
kind; or from losing customers
altogether, should they decide they’d rather do without what
is being offered.
And if that’s what first principles tell us, there are plenty
of reasons to be sceptical about what
the real-world data are showing, too. A roundtable discussion
of the subject by experts, hosted by
the OECD group of wealthy nations in 2018, concluded that
although market power did indeed
appear to be rising in many countries, the causes were
unclear. It might reflect a reduction in
competitive intensity, but it might equally be the outcome of
intense competition. If the causes
are unclear, then there’s no way to be confident about what
the correct policy response should
be.
In any case, the rise in industrial concentration may not be
all it appears to be. As a 2019 paper
by Alessandra Bonfiglioli, Rosario Crinò and Gino Gancia for
the Centre for Economic Policy
Research notes, all the existing evidence for the increase in
industrial concentration and the fear
that this will usher in a new era of monopolies has been based
on national data. They find that when competition from foreign
imports is included, the overall level of competition may in
fact
have intensified rather than fallen – even if the number of
firms from the home country entering
the market falls. So increased global competition and greater
national concentration may be two
sides of the same coin – “growing global competition may force
unproductive firms to exit and
top firms to consolidate on their best products”.
Is monopoly such a bad thing anyway?
Amazon is one of the companies charged with unfairly
exploiting its dominant position to crush
competition and hence harm customers. Indeed, its boss, Jeff
Bezos, was recently dragged before
the US Congress and had to defend his firm from hostile
questioning. But if Amazon is a
monopoly, then the first question that arises is, is that such
a bad thing? Amazon started out as an
idea in Bezos’s mind, which he put into action using money he
raised himself from family and
investors, working from his basement and carrying parcels to
the post office. It was, from the
beginning, a high-risk venture, deemed by most to be almost
certain to fail. Yet by consistently
offering consumers what they didn’t know they wanted, and
winning their approval and then
loyalty, Amazon rose above its competitors by sheer
excellence. It’s not as if its customers have
been forced into anything.
Moreover, even in its current dominant position, Amazon faces
plenty of intense competition. As
Bezos pointed out in his testimony to Congress, customer trust
is hard to win and easy to lose.
Amazon’s globe-spanning dominance would end very quickly
should that trust disappear. There
are plenty of competitors snapping at its heels. Amazon
accounts for less than 1% of the $25trn
global retail market, according to Bezos, and less than 4% of
retail in the US. There are more
than 80 retailers in the US alone that earn more than $1bn in
annual revenue – that includes
Walmart, which is more than twice Amazon’s size and whose
online sales grew 74% in the first
quarter. In the wake of the pandemic, plenty of other
companies are competing with Amazon in
the race for online orders for goods, including Shopify and
Instacart.
The briefest review of relatively recent history should be
enough to show that large companies of
the kind that draw fire from those concerned about monopolies
are in reality always in danger of
having their profits competed away at any moment – witness
Kodak and Myspace, to take just
two commonly cited examples. As those economists who most
consistently defend free markets
insist, monopolies are only ever really a threat, not as a
result of companies operating in free
markets, but as a result of government interference –
particularly, in our day, as a result of
money printing and ultra-low interest rates. What is needed,
then, is not more government
interference to solve the problems they have created, but
less. In this sense, the rising threat of
monopoly as a result of the coronavirus pandemic is a clue to
the real source of the problem.
QUESTIONS: What do you think of the article? Do you think the
author's examples of monopolies are actually that? Is there such a
thing as "excess profits"? Are the firms mentioned truly
monopolies, in that they are the ONLY providers for that good or
service? Do we need more regulation, or less? Why?