In: Finance
The Butler-Perkins Company (BPC) must decide between two mutually exclusive projects. Each project has an initial outflow of $6,750 and has an expected life of 3 years. Annual project cash flows begin 1 year after the initial investment and are subject to the following probability distributions:
Project A | Project B | |||
Probability | Cash Flows | Probability | Cash Flows | |
0.2 | $6,500 | 0.2 | $ 0 | |
0.6 | 6,750 | 0.6 | 6,750 | |
0.2 | 7,000 | 0.2 | 17,000 |
BPC has decided to evaluate the riskier project at 12% and the less-risky project at 8%.
Project A: | $ |
Project B: | $ |
σA: | $ |
CVA: |
a)Calculation of annual cash flow of Project A
Cash flow(x) | Probability(p) | Annual Cash flow(x*p) |
$6500 | 0.2 | 6500 x 0.2 = 1300 |
$6750 | 0.6 | 6750 x 0.6 = 4050 |
$7000 | 0.2 | 7000 x 0.2 = 1400 |
Total = $6750 |
Annual cash flow of Project A = $6750
Calculation of annual cash flow of Project B
Cash flow(x) | Probability(p) | Annual Cash flow(x*p) |
$0 | 0.2 | 0 x 0.2 = 0 |
$6750 | 0.6 | 6750 x 0.6 = 4050 |
$17000 | 0.2 | 17000 x 0.2 = 3400 |
Total = $7450 |
Annual cash flow of Project A = $7450
b) Calculation of standard deviation and CV of project A
Cashflow(x) | Probability(p) | x * p | (x-x̄) | (x-x̄)2 | p(x-x̄)2 |
6500 | 0.2 | 1300 | -250 | 62500 | 12500 |
6750 (taken as x) | 0.6 | 4050 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
7000 | 0.2 | 1400 | 250 | 62500 | 12500 |
6750 | Variance = 25000 |
Mean(x̄) = = = 2250
Standard deviation = √ variance = √25000 = 158
Coefficient of variation =
= 158 / 2250 = 0.070