Question

b) The recent global climate change has necessitated the need for a new model for predicting weather patterns. Two scientists who were modeling this process in Ghana ended up with two different system models.

i) What could be the possible reason(s) for the differences in their system model? Justify your answer.

ii) In relation to real world data from the process how can you select the best model to employ for subsequent simulations and prediction of the process?

Answer 1

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I. So Basically There are two types of system Model For predicting different model

Weather and climate are sometimes used interchangeably, but scientists, meteorologists and researchers study and model them differently.

Climate Model :

Climate models are mathematical representations of the interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, ice – and the sun. This is clearly a very complex task, so models are built to estimate trends rather than events. For example, a climate model can tell you it will be cold in winter, but it can’t tell you what the temperature will be on a specific day – that’s weather forecasting. Climate trends are weather, averaged out over time - usually 30 years. Trends are important because they eliminate - or "smooth out" - single events that may be extreme, but quite rare

Scientists use climate models to understand complex earth systems. These models allow them to test hypotheses and draw conclusions on past and future climate systems. This can help them determine whether abnormal weather events or storms are a result of changes in climate or just part of the routine climate variation. For example, when predicting tropical cyclones during hurricane season, scientists can use climate models to predict the number of tropical storms that may form off the coast and in what regions they are likely to make landfall.

What is a Weather Model?

“Today’s weather forecast is partly cloudy with a chance of showers in the late afternoon…” This is a familiar weather summary that you have probably heard before from a meteorologist. To make these predictions, meteorologists use weather data and forecast models to determine current and future atmospheric conditions.

Because weather takes place hour by hour, forecast models use current atmospheric and oceanic conditions to predict future weather. The forecast takes into account humidity, temperature, air pressure, wind speed and direction, as well as cloud cover. Geographic location, proximity to water, urban structures, latitude and elevation can also influence the weather you experience.

Weather models work at resolutions high enough to generate different predictions for neighboring towns, in some cases, but only over short timescales of about two weeks maximum.

2. So from my point of view Climate Model is best bcz it has more accurate than weather model

So why it is more accurate because

Since the world can’t afford to wait decades to measure the accuracy of climate model predictions, scientists test a model’s accuracy using past events. If the model accurately predicts past events that we know happened, then it should be pretty good at predicting the future, too. And the more we learn about past and present conditions, the more accurate these models become.

Climate models are complex because of the all the elements that are in flux within Earth’s systems. If our atmosphere was like the moon’s, climate modeling would be fairly easy because the moon barely has an atmosphere. On Earth, climate scientists must account for temperature fluctuations, wind patterns, ocean currents, land surface characteristics and much more. Because of this, the models always consider some level of uncertainty – but models measuring smaller areas with higher resolutions produce more accurate models. Despite a small amount of uncertainty, scientists find climate models of the 21st century to be pretty accurate because they are based on well-founded physical principles of earth system processes. This basis solidifies the confidence of the scientific community that human emissions are changing the climate, which will impact the entire planet.