Question

1)Over the past 12 weeks, demand and orders at Michael’s Metals are as follows. Calculate the bullwhip measure for the 12-week period.

	Demand	Orders
1	228	137
2	185	120
3	206	231
4	243	197
5	194	224
6	209	140
7	243	135
8	206	246
9	156	120
10	149	250
11	191	194
12	159	187

a)0.41

b)2.42

c)3.15

d)1.1

2)The following tasks lie on the critical path of a project:

Task	Mean Completion Time	St. Dev
A	4	0.6
B	5	0.2
E	2	0.1
F	6	1
H	2	0.2
M	6	0.1

a.The above task gives the mean completion time of each task (in days) and the standard deviation. Based on this information, what is the probability that the project will be completed in 23 days or less?

a)less than 5% but more than 3%

b)Less than 3%

c)More than 5% but less than 10%

d)More than 10%

b.The above task gives the mean completion time of each task (in days) and the standard deviation. Based on this information, with 99% probability, in how many days will the project be completed?

3) A firm X is evaluating disaster risk in the supply chain. If the probability of the super even S=0.1 and the probability of the unique event U=0.05, what is the lowest possible probability of supply chain disruption that firm X can achieve (regardless of the suppliers)?

a)0.1

b)0.12

c)0.14

d)0.08

Answer 1

Answer 1: Here, we will find the Bullwhip Measure by following the steps as mentioned below:

Step 1: First, prepare the following table:

Where n = sample size = 12

Step 2: Calculate the Variance of Orders and Variance of Demand

Var Y = Variance of Orders = Sum of Row 6 / (n-1) = 26964.25 / (12 - 1) = 2451.30

Var X = Variance of Demand = Sum of Row 5 / (n-1) = = 11114.92 / (12-1) = 1010.45

Step 3: Find the Bullwhip Measure:

The Bullwhip Measure = Variance of orders / Variance of demand

= 2451.30 / 1010.45

= 2.4260 ≈ 2.42 (Option b)