Question

Burlington has tracked daily sales of coats for the three locations below:

Date	Chicago	Seasonal Relatives for Chicago Sales	California	New York
1/4/18	152	0.3	640	456
1/5/18	195	0.4	586	650
1/6/18	653	1.5	420	543
1/7/18	187	0.5	645	632
1/8/18	240	0.6	507	546
1/9/18	207	0.8	623	531
1/10/18	311	0.9	511	544
1/11/18	373	1.2	500	639
1/12/18	225	0.5	576	570
1/13/18	276	0.3	540	544
1/14/18	475	0.7	475	674
1/15/18	755	1.1	645	711
1/16/18	732	1.4	534	594
1/17/18	975	2.2	511	564
1/18/18	170	0.3	650	693
1/19/18	203	0.7	699	645
1/20/18	288	0.8	580	570
1/21/18	378	0.9	520	456
1/22/18	400	1.3	546	609
1/23/18	798	1.6	576	585
1/24/18	1111	1.9	649	609
1/25/18	176	0.5	657	480
1/26/18	213	0.6	600	544
1/27/18	240	0.9	703	560
1/28/18	311	0.7	657	476
1/29/18	456	1	546	656
1/30/18

Question Set 1. Using only the Chicago sales data, generate the following sales forecasts:

1. Naïve forecasts (using the deseasonalized sales data) for January 5th through January 30^th. You will need to adjust the sales data to remove the seasonality effects. (6pts)

2. Four-day moving average forecasts for January 8^th through January 30^th. (3pts)

3. Twelve-day moving average forecasts for January 16^th through January 30^th. (3pts)

Note that, for example, you will not be able to make a four-day moving average forecast for January 7^th since four previous sales figures are required.

Answer 1

1.17 days average of sales between 5/1/18 to 30/1/18 up to the seasonal relative of 1 considering above 1 as seasonal effect as follows

195+187+240+207+311+225+276+170+203+288+378+176+213+240+311+456=239.76(It has been assumed that Seasonal factor up to and below 1 is normal sale excluding seasonal effects and average of aggregate of  normal sale average is taken as projected sales for 1/30/18.

2.moving average of 4 sale are =296.75+318.75+321.75+236.25+282.75+279+296.25+337.25+268.25+432.75+559.50+734.25+658+520+409+259.75+317.79+466+671.75+621.25+574.50+435+235+305+311.69/24=423.96(moving average is calculated by averaging first four sales figure and thereafter excluding first sales figure every time and by taking average of all averages as final avg. projected sales figure is also taken for such calculation)

3.12 day moving average would be 473.67+438.58+395.33+401.14=1708.72/4=427.18