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I have to write a predictive analysis paper about the US Border Security approach and policies,...

I have to write a predictive analysis paper about the US Border Security approach and policies, past and current events. Can someone help me with this because I don't even know where to and how to write a predictive analysis paper. The paper will be a predictive analysis of the U.S. Border Security approach, policies, etc., based on past and current events as well as Presidential strategic goals.

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Below is the analysis paper as far as my work is concerend

Introduction:

In the USA, the idea of border protection has a dynamic connection with the current threat of terrorism. The defense of borders, ports, and airports requires border control. It is a complex partnership that allows the federal government to continually re-evaluate and adjust its border protection policies in order to cope with potential threats to the United States by means of human terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and explosion.Many measures to improve border security in the United States have been taken since September 11. The formation of the Homeland Security Department in 2002 and the introduction of a range of new (classified and unclassified) policies and procedures have definitely made the American borders, ports and airports more stable than they were in 2001. However, there is no doubt that the threats posed by terrorism across America's land borders, ports, and airports remain, and whether the US is really safe from another attack remains questionable.

Current Approach and Policies & Events:

Nearly 700 miles of fencing have been completed by the Department of Home Defense. 20,700 border patrol officers have been identified by the Homeland Security Ministry. However, there are currently over 18 300 officers on the southern and northern frontiers of Border Patrol. Homeland defense employs border equipment, such as unattended ground sensors, truck-mounted mobile surveillance systems, remote video surveillance systems, unmanned air systems, fixed and rotary aircraft and the ISIS. The frontier has been central to U.S. policy discussions since at least the 1980s. The correct border security plan has been debated for years by policy makers. It was a general consensus on the structure of tasks and goals that resulted from these efforts. Some concern however is whether the plan has been comprehensively drawn up sufficiently. A selection of agencies or technically similar strategic elements that illustrate those features typically supports the large structure in place today. There are a host of competing policy options to opponents and supporters of the US border defense program to efficiently secure the border.

A mission, three goals, and five strategic elements can be understood as the existing structure for border security. The mission is to protect and maintain the American border. This can be outlined in terms of achieving successful border security, safeguarding legal traffic and transportation, as well as detection and disruption of transnational criminal organizations. Finally, the Department of Homeland Security leadership, the implementation of a structured security structure, the maximization of domain information, the promotion and extension of the border by international and domestic partnerships, are the five strategic components for achieving these aims. Analysis of evidence available shows that while the existing approach to border security is backed by a certain degree of feasibility, this obviously does not provide enough dissuasion to resolve labor market demand for illegally working jobs. However, final efficiency assumptions can not be drawn because the actual border security program is an imperfect version of what lawmakers expected. The purpose of the system for border security is inherently ambiguous, considering the wide scale of threats and activities at the border. Nonetheless, these priorities are based on the premise that an compliance plan will effectively eliminate or discourage most unwanted acts. This belief has been the subject of many debates and in some circles it still gives rise to skepticism. As previously stated, few definitive statements can be made about the efficacy of the current border security system. Furthermore, even though enforcement-only steps allow for deterrence and border protection, they are expensive as well as not actually addressing the root causes. In addition, they may be unintentional.

Presidential Strategic Goals:

The US Vision and Presidential Strategic Goals on Customs and Border Protection (CBP) strongly defines CBP as the regional leader for border security and economic development. The strategy provides the basis for a transformational approach that improves CBP's foresight and resilience to address the ever more dynamic and global challenges. Whilst combating the risks of terrorism and transnational crime we remain an important part of our national security leadership position, protecting our economy by facilitating legal trade and travel. Such a balance between law enforcement and compliance includes a clear awareness of all frontier risks and potential implications, the establishment of an intelligence and legal enforcement network and a thorough knowledge of the needs and organizational protocols of our trading partners. CBP's innovative approach in the intelligence and targeting of drugs, smuggling and trafficking of humans, as well as the exit transfer of forbidden weapons and illicit bulk currencies shall forecast and counteract the criminal networks engaging in various conspiracies including terrorism, importation of counterfeit or unsafe goods.

CBP has developed a path to ensure operational productivity, streamlined business processes, and prioritized capability growth to meet operating goals and overall mission productivity in an ever-changing security and exchange climate. CBP will further promote its mutual identity and community by attracting top quality, diverse and high-performance staff, promoting, improving and retaining them. CBP plays an important leading role to the national security and economic interests of the United States and sets the benchmark for success by incorporating concepts of teamwork, innovation and integration. Efficient risk management can enhance the implementation of plans and policies at the strategic level. Understanding how competitive challenges can affect the achievement of objectives and organizational effectiveness provides the basis for identifying performance targets guided by results appropriately. Risk management requires a detailed planning review to enable decision-makers to prioritize conflicting requirements. The joint effort involved in producing this study helps us to establish comprehensive performance assessment approaches. In addition, the cyclical nature of risk management provides a feedback mechanism for monitoring and reporting development. In order to achieve the priorities and objectives outlined in this strategy, CBp continues to develop its planning capability and risk management strategies for systematic decision taking. The Agency will better identify organizational and internal standards of success and acquisition of appropriate skills to achieve the CBP strategic vision through efficient risk management processes.

References (APA)

Ackleson, J. (2005). Border security technologies: Local and regional implications. Review of policy research, 22(2), 137-155.

Brunet‐Jailly, E. (2006). Security and border security policies: Perimeter or smart border? A comparison of the European union and Canadian‐American border security regimes. Journal of borderlands studies, 21(1), 3-21.

Ackleson, J. (2003). Directions in border security research. The Social Science Journal, 40(4), 573-581.

Ackleson, J. (2005). Border security in risk society. Journal of Borderlands Studies, 20(1), 1-22.

Guerette, R. T. (2007). Immigration policy, border security, and migrant deaths: an impact evaluation of life‐saving efforts under the border safety initiative. Criminology & public policy, 6(2), 245-266.

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