Question

1. Time series is given:

Year	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Amount	65	61	73	68	67	72	75	70

• Calculate and interpret the characteristics of it;
• Make the time series next value forecast by using any method.

Answer 1

There is a horizontal pattern in the data.

The next value forecast is 75.2857143.

The calculations are:

Data				Forecasts and Error Analysis
Period	Demand (y)	Period(x)		Forecast	Error	Absolute	Squared	Abs Pct Err
Period 1	65	1		63.78571	1.214286	1.214286	1.47449	01.87%
Period 2	61	2		65.42857	-4.42857	4.428571	19.61224	07.26%
Period 3	73	3		67.07143	5.928571	5.928571	35.14796	08.12%
Period 4	68	4		68.71429	-0.71429	0.714286	0.510204	01.05%
Period 5	67	5		70.35714	-3.35714	3.357143	11.27041	05.01%
Period 6	72	6		72	0	0	0	00.00%
Period 7	75	7		73.64286	1.357143	1.357143	1.841837	01.81%
				Total	2.13E-14	17	69.85714	25.12%
Intercept	62.1428571			Average	3.05E-15	2.428571	9.979592	03.59%
Slope	1.64285714				Bias	MAD	MSE	MAPE
						SE	3.737837
Forecast	75.2857143	8
						Correlation	0.720865
						Coefficient of determination	0.519646

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