Question

Most infectious disease models use polynomial, exponential, or logarithmic functions. If you had to use a moving average method or a linear regression method to predict new infections, which do you think would be better (better-fitting) and why?

Answer 1

can be mentioned that when we have two options regression on moving average it is always better to choose regression and this is because of the fact that the equation can give the trend of the data whether it is moving upwards and downwards so that you can actually estimate what would be the forecast be based on the trend while moving average can actually deviate you from the trendat times where consider 3 period moving average with increasing trend where the last value is well below the level due to natural disaster and with regression that one value might not affect much as the whole data is an increasing trend but for moving average that one data point can effect so that that forecast would change. That is the reason why you have to understand that it would be better to use linear regression model because the trend would be followed rather than moving average where there can be seasonal changes which might affect the focus in a negative direction