Question

In: Economics

Tractor Unit Sales, use the exponential smoothing method to develop the forecasting models with various values...

Tractor Unit Sales, use the exponential smoothing method to develop the forecasting models with various values of α (α = 0.1, 0.2, …, 0.9), then calculate MAPE to identify the best value of α.   

Please include formulas and screen shots of excel.

Month NA SA Eur Pac China World
Jan-10 570 250 560 212 0 1592
Feb-10 611 270 600 230 0 1711
Mar-10 630 260 680 240 0 1810
Apr-10 684 270 650 263 0 1867
May-10 650 280 580 269 0 1779
Jun-10 600 270 590 280 0 1740
Jul-10 512 264 760 290 0 1826
Aug-10 500 280 645 270 0 1695
Sep-10 478 290 650 263 0 1681
Oct-10 455 280 670 258 0 1663
Nov-10 407 290 888 240 0 1825
Dec-10 360 280 850 230 0 1720
Jan-11 571 320 620 250 0 1761
Feb-11 650 350 760 275 0 2035
Mar-11 740 390 742 270 0 2142
Apr-11 840 440 780 280 0 2340
May-11 830 470 690 290 0 2280
Jun-11 760 490 721 300 0 2271
Jul-11 681 481 680 312 0 2154
Aug-11 670 460 711 305 0 2146
Sep-11 640 460 695 290 0 2085
Oct-11 620 440 650 260 0 1970
Nov-11 570 436 680 250 0 1936
Dec-11 533 420 657 240 0 1850
Jan-12 620 510 610 250 10 2000
Feb-12 792 590 680 250 12 2324
Mar-12 890 610 730 260 20 2510
Apr-12 960 600 820 270 22 2672
May-12 1040 620 810 290 20 2780
Jun-12 1032 640 807 310 24 2813
Jul-12 1006 590 760 340 20 2716
Aug-12 910 600 720 320 31 2581
Sep-12 803 670 660 313 30 2476
Oct-12 730 630 630 290 37 2317
Nov-12 699 710 603 280 32 2324
Dec-12 647 570 570 260 33 2080
Jan-13 730 650 500 287 35 2202
Feb-13 930 680 590 290 50 2540
Mar-13 1160 724 620 300 63 2867
Apr-13 1510 730 730 310 68 3348
May-13 1650 760 740 330 70 3550
Jun-13 1490 800 720 340 82 3432
Jul-13 1460 840 670 350 80 3400
Aug-13 1390 830 610 341 90 3261
Sep-13 1360 820 599 330 100 3209
Oct-13 1340 810 560 320 102 3132
Nov-13 1240 827 550 300 110 3027
Dec-13 1103 750 520 290 114 2777
Jan-14 1250 780 480 200 111 2821
Feb-14 1550 805 523 210 121 3209
Mar-14 1820 830 560 220 123 3553
Apr-14 2010 890 570 230 120 3820
May-14 2230 930 590 253 130 4133
Jun-14 2490 980 600 270 136 4476
Jul-14 2440 1002 580 280 134 4436
Aug-14 2334 970 570 250 132 4256
Sep-14 2190 960 550 230 137 4067
Oct-14 2080 930 530 220 130 3890
Nov-14 2050 920 517 190 139 3816
Dec-14 2004 902 490 190 131 3717

Solutions

Expert Solution

Rahul Sunny answered 1 year ago
Next > < Previous

Related Solutions

Given the following data, use exponential smoothing with a = 0.3 and α =.5 to develop...
Given the following data, use exponential smoothing with a = 0.3 and α =.5 to develop a demand forecasts for period 7.  Assume that the forecast for week 1= 19. Use the Mean Absolute Percent Error to determine which forecasts are more accurate. Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 Demand 17 19 15 19 13 18
Use an exponential smoothing method with a starting forecast of 21 for month 1 and a...
Use an exponential smoothing method with a starting forecast of 21 for month 1 and a smoothing constant α = 0.5 to calculate month-in-advance forecasts for months 4–12 and forecast for the first month of next year. Calculate the MAD.
The library would like to compare the regression and exponential smoothing models to determine which is...
The library would like to compare the regression and exponential smoothing models to determine which is a better predictor, using the mean absolute error | (books borrowed) – (model’s estimate)|/n as a measure of prediction quality. Select the best of the following four options for splitting the data: A. 15% for training, 15% for validation, 70% for test B. 15% for training, 70% for validation, 15% for test C. 70% for training, 15% for validation, 15% for test D. 55%...
Use 5 months moving average and exponential smoothing method (using alpha=0.3) on the following sale of...
Use 5 months moving average and exponential smoothing method (using alpha=0.3) on the following sale of Maggi. You are supposed to forecast the sale of Maggi in the 13th Month. Compare whether there is any difference in forecast based on two methods and Comment. Period (Month) Actual Sale of Maggi 1 1100 2 800 3 1000 4 1050 5 1500 6 750 7 700 8 650 9 1400 10 1200 11 900 12 1000 13
Of the three quantitative forecasting techniques (moving average, weighted moving average, and exponential smoothing), which do...
Of the three quantitative forecasting techniques (moving average, weighted moving average, and exponential smoothing), which do you think provides the most accurate forecast and why?
Write a report on the application of all the forecasting methods.(regression,time series decomposition and exponential smoothing,ARIMA...
Write a report on the application of all the forecasting methods.(regression,time series decomposition and exponential smoothing,ARIMA models
a) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for the time series.
Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 11 13 10 14 12 a) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for the time series. Week Time Series Value Forecast 1 18 2 11 ? 3 13 ? 4 10 ? 5 14 ? 6 12 ? Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MSE = What is the forecast for week 7? (Round your answer to two...
a) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for the time series.
Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 11 13 10 14 12 a) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for the time series. Week Time Series Value Forecast 1 18 2 11 ? 3 13 ? 4 10 ? 5 14 ? 6 12 ? Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MSE = What is the forecast for week 7? (Round your answer to two...
When using Time Series forecasting, what is true about Double Exponential Smoothing? Group of answer choices...
When using Time Series forecasting, what is true about Double Exponential Smoothing? Group of answer choices The double exponential smoothing technique should not be used for predicting seasonal data. Double Exponential Smoothing is able to predict both a level effect and a trend effect in the data. It is good for predicting cyclical data. When Alpha (level) coefficient and Gamma (trend) coefficient are closer to .1 (rather than closer to .9), this tends to smooth the prediction. All of the...
Suppose that simple exponential smoothing with w=0.4 is used to forecast monthly wine sales at a...
Suppose that simple exponential smoothing with w=0.4 is used to forecast monthly wine sales at a liquor store. After April's Demand is observed, the forecasted Demand for May is 4500 bottles of wine. a. At the beginning of May, What is the forecast of July's Wine Sales? b. Suppose that actual Demands during May and June are as follows: May - 5000 bottles of wine and June - 4000 bottles of wine. After observing June's Demand, What is the forecast...
ADVERTISEMENT
Subjects
ADVERTISEMENT
Latest Questions
ADVERTISEMENT