Question

how can this pandemic changes the global economic flow or the oil flow?

Answer 1

Recently, the most dangerous pandemic is covid - 19. We all know how harmful it is for the world, environment, economy, and all of the human beings. The covid-19 pandemic has spread at an alarming pace, infecting millions of people, and stalling economic activity as countries have halted their activity to prevent the virus from spreading. Such as health And human damage increases, the economic damage is becoming apparent and represents the world's greatest economic shock that has occurred in decades.

  The global economic prospects of June -2020 describe both longitudinal tragedy and long-term events. The base forecast envisages a 5.2 percent reduction in global GDP in the year 2020, with the rate of market exchange rate sharper Has declined. Despite the extraordinary efforts by the government to counter the recession with fiscal and monetary policy support, the decade faces a deep global recession. It is expected that the long-term global footprint is expected to leave a lasting mark, Will erode human capital through lost work and schooling, and break global trade and supply relations.

Historical contraction of per capita income :

​​​​​​With the largest share of per capita income in the world since 1870, the pandemic is expected to cause most countries to fall into recession in 2020. Advanced economies are projected to shrink by 7 percent. This weakness in emerging markets and developing economies. Will approach the outlook for, whose estimates are that they will contract 2.5 percent as they face their domestic virus outbreak. This would represent the weakest performance by this group of economies in at least sixty years.

Each region is subject to a substantial growth downgrade. East Asia and the Pacific will grow by 0.5%. South Asia is up 2.7%, Sub-Saharan Africa by 2.8%, Middle East and North Africa 4.2%, Europe and Central Asia 4.7%, and Latin America will have a 7.2% contract. These shortcomings towards development goals are likely to reduce years of progress and millions of people are expected to return to extreme poverty.

  Developing markets and developing economies will have to grapple with economic problems in many sectors - pressure on weak health care systems, declining trade and tourism, financial situation amid remittances, slow capital inflows, and rising debt. Exclusive to energy or industrial goods exporters Will have to face difficulty.
The widespread and efforts to curb it have led to an unexpected drop in oil demand and a fall in oil prices. Demand for metals and transport-related commodities such as rubber and platinum has also declined. While the agricultural market supplies well globally There are trade restrictions and supply chain bottlenecks that can still exacerbate food security issues in some places.

Chances of worse consequence :

Even this dismal outlook is subject to much suspicion and significant downside risk. The forecast assumes that the epidemic is reduced in such a way that household relief measures in developed countries and later developing countries are raised in advanced countries in mid-year In contrast, in the second half of 2020, there is a shortage of global lovers and large-scale financial crisis can be avoided. This scenario would imagine modernizing global growth, although modestly, 4.2% in 2021.

Even this dismal outlook is subject to much uncertainty and significant downside risk. The forecast assumes that the epidemic is reduced in such a way that domestic relief measures in developed countries and later developing countries are lifted in advanced countries in mid-year In contrast, in the second half of 2020, there is a shortage of global lovers and large-scale financial crisis can be avoided. This scenario would imagine reviving global growth, although modestly, 4.2% in 2021.

Potential production, long term damage to productivity growth :

The global economic prospects of June 2020 look beyond the near-term perspective of what could be the impact of the deep global recession: failure to produce potential outputs such as an economy can achieve full capacity and full employment levels. Many emerging and developing economies had already weakened before the crisis, including low-income economies with limited healthcare capacity in developing economies; these economies are now facing even more difficult challenges since the economic crisis.