Question

In: Statistics and Probability

Consider a portion of monthly return data (In %) on 20-year Treasury Bonds from 2006–2010. Date...

Consider a portion of monthly return data (In %) on 20-year Treasury Bonds from 2006–2010.

Date Return
Jan-06 4.12
Feb-06 4.44
Mar-06 4.02
Apr-06 4.79
May-06 4.01
Jun-06 3.65
Jul-06 4.07
Aug-06 4.3
Sep-06 5.49
Oct-06 3.6
Nov-06 4.71
Dec-06 3.83
Jan-07 4.14
Feb-07 3.53
Mar-07 3.68
Apr-07 4.19
May-07 3.34
Jun-07 3.51
Jul-07 3.48
Aug-07 3.68
Sep-07 4.96
Oct-07 3.42
Nov-07 4.17
Dec-07 4.25
Jan-08 5.05
Feb-08 3.23
Mar-08 5.34
Apr-08 5.15
May-08 4.58
Jun-08 4.61
Jul-08 4.25
Aug-08 4.49
Sep-08 3.55
Oct-08 4.48
Nov-08 4.38
Dec-08 3.99
Jan-09 3.73
Feb-09 5
Mar-09 3.2
Apr-09 3.87
May-09 5.5
Jun-09 4.6
Jul-09 3.79
Aug-09 3.73
Sep-09 5.35
Oct-09 4.24
Nov-09 3.86
Dec-09 5.38
Jan-10 3.61
Feb-10 4.59
Mar-10 4.22
Apr-10 3.42
May-10 4.54
Jun-10 5.49
Jul-10 4.29
Aug-10 4.49
Sep-10 3.78
Oct-10 3.98
Nov-10 3.44
Dec-10 5.19

Estimate a linear trend model with seasonal dummy variables to make forecasts for the first three months of 2011. (Round intermediate calculations to at least 4 decimal places and final answers to 2 decimal places.)

Year Month y^t
2011 Jan
2011 Feb
2011 Mar

Solutions

Expert Solution

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.342473152
R Square 0.11728786
Adjusted R Square -0.108085453
Standard Error 0.667759459
Observations 60
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 12 2.784658333 0.232054861 0.52041592 0.890749266
Residual 47 20.95742667 0.445902695
Total 59 23.742085
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%
Intercept 4.38 0.350176015 12.50799546 1.45728E-16 3.675536725
t 0.004111111 0.005079818 0.809302785 0.42241928 -0.006108165
jan -0.352777778 0.426008719 -0.8280999 0.41179927 -1.209796778
feb -0.328888889 0.425372229 -0.773179033 0.443287781 -1.184627436
march -0.399 0.424795535 -0.939275408 0.35239166 -1.253578389
april -0.211111111 0.424278882 -0.497576288 0.621102762 -1.064650127
may -0.105222222 0.423822488 -0.248269559 0.805007427 -0.957843092
june -0.131333333 0.423426548 -0.310167924 0.757804477 -0.983157676
july -0.531444444 0.423091234 -1.256098927 0.215288202 -1.38259422
august -0.373555556 0.422816687 -0.883492934 0.381466985 -1.224153015
sept 0.110333333 0.422603028 0.261080319 0.795171202 -0.739834299
oct -0.575777778 0.422450348 -1.362947814 0.179393519 -1.425638257
nov -0.411888889 0.422358713 -0.975211061 0.334448395 -1.261565023
Year Month t y
2011 Jan 61 4.278
2011 Feb 62 4.306
2011 Mar 63 4.24

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