Question

Use the Internet to search for opinion polls (non-presidential).

Referencing the recent poll you identified, discuss why you might think the results of the poll might not reflect the opinions of the population from which the sample was drawn.

Be sure to reference the statistical concepts you have learned in this unit and the poll you selected for your post (including the URL).

Answer 1

Naturally, the poll results might not perfectly match what the whole population thinks

URL- https://www.businessinsider.in/Hillary-is-crushing-Trump-in-the-latest-polls-but-polls-can-get-it-wrong-in-lots-of-ways/articleshow/53565032.cms

lets take "Hillary is crushing Trump in the latest polls - but polls can get it wrong in lots of ways"

1. Far more important than dialing down the margin of error is making sure that whatever you're aiming at is unbiased and that you do have a representative sample

2. Pollsters typically ask roughly 1,000 people a question like: Whom do you plan to vote for? Their goal is to be 95% sure that the real level of support in the whole population is captured in the sample's range from the low end of the margin of error to the high end

3. In modern polling, most statisticians see sampling 1,000 people as a good compromise between a manageable sample size and acceptable confidence.

4. My sense is that marketers are quicker to adopt Internet polling because the samples delivered by that means are relevant to their objectives.”

5.  The 2004 Pew study found that while polls face growing resistance and a drop in participation, “carefully conducted polls continue to obtain representative samples of the public and provide accurate data about the views and experiences of Americans….The decline in participation has not undermined the validity of most surveys conducted by reputable polling organizations.”

Let's say that a poll comes out showing Clinton at 51% support and Trump at 49%. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 points. In purely statistical terms, most would consider this example a "statistical dead heat." Either candidate could be ahead.

The margin of error accounts for this:

• Because the margin of error is 3 points, the pollsters are confident that support for Trump in the total population is between 40% and 46%, or 43% plus or minus 3 percentage points.
• Support for Clinton is between 39% and 45%.