In: Finance
You own a US company with borrowings from Switzerland. Over the next few months, your loan repayment of CHF 50 million is due. Given the foreign exchange market movements, you would like to minimise the impact on your cash outflow. Based on the following data, devise a suitable strategy. Evaluate your chosen strategy against suitable alternatives for a range of expected future spot rates.
Spot rate = 0.9888 CHF/USD
3 month forward rate = 3 month future rate = 0.9796 CHF/USD
Option Premia: Strike Price |
Call Option |
Put Option |
0.9850 |
0.0108 |
0.0146 |
0.9900 |
0.0087 |
0.0175 |
Each option contract has a size of 125,000 Swiss Francs.
Alternative 1: No hedge
If no hedge is taken then borrower will be exposed to risk when USD deprciates against CHF as more USD will be needed to purchase CHF 50 mil when payment is due. Payoff will be as follows.
Spot Rate | $m |
0.9738 | 51.35 |
0.9788 | 51.08 |
0.9838 | 50.82 |
0.9888 | 50.57 |
0.9938 | 50.31 |
0.9988 | 50.06 |
1.0038 | 49.81 |
Hence, this strategy is not recommended.
Alternative 2: Forward hedge
It will lock in the cost for the borrower. However, if USD appreciates against CHF, borrower still has to pay agreed USD to purchase 50 million CHF (i.e. 0.9796 CHF/USD or 1.0208 USD/CHF). Payoff will be as follows.
Spot Rate | $m (Spot) | $m (Forward) | Profit/Loss ($m) |
0.9738 | 51.35 | 51.04 | 0.30 |
0.9788 | 51.08 | 51.04 | 0.04 |
0.9838 | 50.82 | 51.04 | -0.22 |
0.9888 | 50.57 | 51.04 | -0.47 |
0.9938 | 50.31 | 51.04 | -0.73 |
0.9988 | 50.06 | 51.04 | -0.98 |
1.0038 | 49.81 | 51.04 | -1.23 |
As you can observe, when USD appreciates against CHF, borrower has to suffer losses due to pre locked in cost. This strategy is recommended when borrower expects USD to depreciate against CHF.
Alternative 3: Bear Call Spread
This strategy is useful when the borrower expects USD to depreciate against CHF. We are long on 0.9850 call and short on 0.9900 call.
Spot rate | Long Call (0.9850) | Short Call (0.9900) | Premium Paid ($m) | Premium Received ($m) | Profit/Loss ($m) | Profit/Loss ($m) | Net Profit/Loss ($m) |
0.9738 | Exercised | Expired | 0.55 | 0.44 | 0.58 | - | 0.48 |
0.9788 | Exercised | Expired | 0.55 | 0.44 | 0.32 | - | 0.22 |
0.9838 | Exercised | Expired | 0.55 | 0.44 | 0.06 | - | -0.04 |
0.9888 | Expired | Expired | 0.55 | 0.44 | - | - | -0.11 |
0.9938 | Expired | Exercised | 0.55 | 0.44 | - | -0.19 | -0.30 |
0.9988 | Expired | Exercised | 0.55 | 0.44 | - | -0.44 | -0.55 |
1.0038 | Expired | Exercised | 0.55 | 0.44 | - | -0.69 | -0.80 |
As you can observe, borrower is in profit when USD depreciates but incurs losses when USD appreciates. However, here the loss is reduced compared to no hedge.