Question
In: Math
Demand data on "Service Orders" for a particular service enterprise for the previous 12 months is...
Demand data on "Service Orders" for a particular service enterprise for the previous 12 months is as follows: 550, 652, 673, 707, 725, 752, 780, 797, 815, 836, 850, and 872. Problem 3b) Use the following three methods and prepare three forecasting tables with errors for the given demand data. • a 3-month Weighted Moving Average with the weights 0.6, 0.3, and 0.1 with the maximum weight going for the most recent data point into the past • Exponential Smoothing with smoothing constant = 0.9 • Linear Trend Regression
Solutions
Expert Solution
a)
| Month | Service order | 3 month Weighted average |
| 1 | 550 | |
| 2 | 652 | |
| 3 | 673 | |
| 4 | 707 | 654.4 |
| 5 | 725 | 691.3 |
| 6 | 752 | 714.4 |
| 7 | 780 | 739.4 |
| 8 | 797 | 766.1 |
| 9 | 815 | 787.4 |
| 10 | 836 | 806.1 |
| 11 | 850 | 825.8 |
| 12 | 872 | 842.3 |
b) Exponential smoothing method
| Month | Service order | Exponential smoothing |
| 1 | 550 | 550 |
| 2 | 652 | 550 |
| 3 | 673 | 641.8 |
| 4 | 707 | 669.88 |
| 5 | 725 | 703.288 |
| 6 | 752 | 722.8288 |
| 7 | 780 | 749.08288 |
| 8 | 797 | 776.908288 |
| 9 | 815 | 794.990829 |
| 10 | 836 | 812.999083 |
| 11 | 850 | 833.699908 |
| 12 | 872 | 848.369991 |
c) Linear trend
Sum of X = 78
Sum of Y = 9009
Mean X = 6.5
Mean Y = 750.75
Sum of squares (SSX) = 143
Sum of products (SP) = 2997.5
Regression Equation = ŷ = bX + a
b = SP/SSX = 2997.5/143 =
20.96154
a = MY - bMX = 750.75 -
(20.96*6.5) = 614.5
ŷ = 20.96154X + 614.5
| Month | Service order | Linear trend |
| 1 | 550 | 635.46154 |
| 2 | 652 | 656.42308 |
| 3 | 673 | 677.38462 |
| 4 | 707 | 698.34616 |
| 5 | 725 | 719.3077 |
| 6 | 752 | 740.26924 |
| 7 | 780 | 761.23078 |
| 8 | 797 | 782.19232 |
| 9 | 815 | 803.15386 |
| 10 | 836 | 824.1154 |
| 11 | 850 | 845.07694 |
| 12 | 872 | 866.03848 |
milcah answered 1 year agoRelated Solutions
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Indicate T
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The time series showing the sales of a particular product over the past 12 months is...
The time series showing the sales of a particular product over
the past 12 months is contained in the Excel Online file below.
Construct a spreadsheet to answer the following
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Use a=0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for the
time series (to 2 decimals).
Month
Time-Series
Value
Forecast
1
105
2
130
3
125
4
100
5
90
6
120
7
150
8
135
9
95
10
75
11
100
12
105
13
Use a smoothing constant of...
The following time series shows the sales of a particular product over the past 12 months....
The following time series shows the sales of a particular
product over the past 12 months.
Month
Sales
1
105
2
135
3
120
4
105
5
90
6
120
7
145
8
140
9
100
10
80
11
100
12
110
(a)
Construct a time series plot.
(b)
Use α = 0.3 to compute the exponential smoothing
forecasts for the time series. (Round your answers to two decimal
places.)
Month t
Time Series Value
Yt
Forecast
Ft
1
105...
The following time series shows the sales of a particular product over the past 12 months....
The following time series shows the sales of a particular
product over the past 12 months.
Month
Sales
1
105
2
135
3
120
4
105
5
90
6
120
7
145
8
140
9
100
10
80
11
100
12
110
(a)
Construct a time series plot.
A time series plot contains a series of 12 points connected by
line segments. The horizontal axis ranges from 0 to 13 and is
labeled: Month. The vertical axis ranges from 0...
The following time series shows the sales of a particular product over the past 12 months....
The following time series shows the sales of a
particular product over the past 12 months. can be found in the
below excel file.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gIpr0IBYUGgCIRSO7g3mqZ84F89vJU_P/view?usp=sharing
1. Using the three-month moving average, what is the Mean
Squared Error (MSE)?
(Round your answer to 2 decimal places. Negative values
should be indicated by a minus sign.)
2. Using the three-month moving average, what is the
forecast for month 13 ?
(Round your answer to 2 decimal places. Negative values
should be indicated by...
The following time series shows the sales of a particular product over the past 12 months....
The following time series shows the sales of a particular
product over the past 12 months.
Month
Sales
1
105
2
135
3
120
4
105
5
90
6
120
7
145
8
140
9
100
10
80
11
100
12
110
Use α = 0.5 to compute the exponential smoothing
forecasts for the time series. (Round your answers to two decimal
places.)
Month t
Time Series Value
Yt
Forecast
Ft
1
105
2
135
3
120
4
105
5...
The following time series shows the sales of a particular product over the past 12 months....
The following time series shows the sales of a particular
product over the past 12 months.
Month
Sales
1
105
2
135
3
120
4
105
5
90
6
120
7
145
8
140
9
100
10
80
11
100
12
110
(b)
Use α = 0.4 to compute the exponential smoothing
forecasts for the time series. (Round your answers to two decimal
places.)
Month t
Time Series Value
Yt
Forecast
Ft
1
105
2
135
3
120
4
105...
The following time series shows the sales of a particular product over the past 12 months....
The following time series shows the sales of a
particular product over the past 12 months. can be found in the
below excel file.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gIpr0IBYUGgCIRSO7g3mqZ84F89vJU_P/view?usp=sharing
1. Using the three-month moving average, what is the Mean
Squared Error (MSE)?
(Round your answer to 2 decimal places. Negative values
should be indicated by a minus sign.)
2. Using the three-month moving average, what is the
forecast for month 13 ?
(Round your answer to 2 decimal places. Negative values
should be indicated by...
The following time series shows the sales of a particular product over the past 12 months....
The following time series shows the sales of a particular
product over the past 12 months. 1) Use the Naïve forecast method
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MAPE. ----Details are required as in the lecture. Month Sales 1 120
2 112 3 119 4 112 5 99 6 120 7 125 8 118 9 114 10 108 11 115 12 117
2 2) Use the 3-month moving average forecast method to get the...
1)Over the past 12 weeks, demand and orders at Michael’s Metals are as follows. Calculate the...
1)Over the past 12 weeks, demand and orders at Michael’s Metals
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Demand
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1
228
137
2
185
120
3
206
231
4
243
197
5
194
224
6
209
140
7
243
135
8
206
246
9
156
120
10
149
250
11
191
194
12
159
187
a)0.41
b)2.42
c)3.15
d)1.1
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Mean Completion Time
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