In: Finance
The following inventory pattern has been observed in the Zahm Corporation over 12 months.
| Month | Inventory |
| Apr-16 | 1,544 |
| May-16 | 1,913 |
| Jun-16 | 2,028 |
| Jul-16 | 1,178 |
| Aug-16 | 1,554 |
| Sep-16 | 1,910 |
| Oct-16 | 1,208 |
| Nov-16 | 2,467 |
| Dec-16 | 2,101 |
| Jan-17 | 1,662 |
| Feb-17 | 2,432 |
| Mar-17 | 2,443 |
Use both three-month and five-month moving-average models to forecast the inventory for the next January. Use mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) to evaluate these two forecasts.
3 months moving averages forecast
MAPE = 22.69 %
5 months moving averages forecast
MAPE = 23.79 %
MAPE of 3 months moving averages is less than MAPE of 5 months moving averages
This forecast using 3 months MA is better