Question

Develop a framework to assess/find the probability that COVID-19 pandemic is to be over by the end of May 2020. There is no textbook answer to this question; so, use your creativity and knowledge up to now in ECON 221. Notice that, the expected answer is not a simple “I think...” kind of basic opinion. Notice also that, the expected answer is not a purely verbal one.

Thanks

Answer 1

COVID-19 is most catastrophic virus and it might cause devastating outcomes for the whole world. It has infected almost all countries and most of the countries are in complete shutdown.

Cases of COVID-19 are rising and there is no respite. Furthermore, a worrisome problem is that there is no treatment or vaccination availability to counter the virus. Thus, it would not be possible to end the virus by the end of May. it is possible that the problem would continue for over one year or until we get some vaccination developed.

Fear of spread of COVID-19 will remain until there is even a single case of COVID-19.

There over 500000 COVID-19 cases in the USA, Further over 18000 people have died. Growth rate of rise in the cases of COVID is very high. Further, the 3 out of 10 deaths due to COVID-19 across the world are in USA. It suggests that US is highly infected country. it will take time to slow down.

Thus, it would be quite impractical to think that COVID-19 would be overcome by the end of May 2020.